苹果深度分析：转型之年的风险与机遇

Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.comApril Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com U.S. IT Hardware Apple Inc Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com 340.00 USD Apple Deep Dive: Risks and Opportunities in a year of transition Yesterday Apple announced the iPhone 17e and more product releases are expected. Thisnote is a deeper analysis into risks and opportunities ahead for the company and stock. Close Date2 Mar 2026AAPL Close Price (USD)264.72Price Target (USD)340.00Upside/(Downside)28%52-Week Range288.62/169.21SPX6,881.62FYESepDiv Yield0.4%Market Cap (USD) (B)3,886.39EV (USD) (B)3,832.11 Apple Intelligence presents a huge opportunity to reinvent the company, accelerateproduct replacement cycles and drive increased services revenue.iPhone replacementcycle has been steadily elongating from 2.3 years to 3.7 years which is why unit shipmentshave barely grown over the past decade despite installed base increasing at 9% CAGR. AppleIntelligence could reverse this trend due to the need for latest and greatest hardware to runon-device AI models. We estimate 13% upside to EPS from accelerating replacement cycle However, increased specs and rising memory costs drive unprecedented costchallenges.Our updated analysis shows potentially 25% increase in iPhone’s BOM and while we show that iPhone users are relatively less price sensitive we believe there is somerisk to increasing prices by 25%. We analyze 4 scenarios for price, cost and potential demanddestruction and conclude that consensus is already baking in conservative assumptions (with Additional opportunities for Apple in low(er) end and foldable phones.Given unprecedented shortages in memory, Apple has a unique opportunity to gain share overlower end Android smartphone makers who cannot secure enough memory. Yesterday’sannouncement of the iPhone 17e (at $599), together with older iPhone variants, is Apple’sforay into this market which we think could drive another 2-6% upside to EPS. In addition the Investment Implications We see risk/reward is skewed to the upside. Reiterate Outperform, TP $340 (33x FY27 EPS). Table Of Contents Part I: iPhone Replacement Cycle Elongation offsetting increase in installed base........................................................................................ 2Part II. Apple Intelligence should accelerate replacement cycle............................................................................................................................ 5Part III. Increasing compute requirements and rising memory costs to increase BOM.................................................................................. 7Part IV. Analyzing Price Elasticity of demand for iPhones...................................................................................................................................... 10Part V. Sizing potential impact from iPhone Cost and ASP changes - Scenario Analysis............................................................................12Part VI. iPhone ASP - How high can it go?.................................................................................................................................................................. 14Part VII. Additional opportunities for Apple in Low(er) End and Foldable Phones......................................................................................... 15 DETAILS PART I: IPHONE REPLACEMENT CYCLE ELONGATION OFFSETTING INCREASE IN INSTALLED BASE iPhone replacement cycle has been steadily elongating.Whether driven by increasingly durable hardware or a lack ofcompelling new features, the trajectory of a longer iPhone replacement cycle is obvious. From 2015 to 2025, Apple’s installedbase expanded at an 8.7% CAGR (up 129%, Exhibit 1), while iPhone unit shipments grew only 0.7% (up 6.5%) over the same The ebb and flow in iPhone unit sales are driven primarily by Apple’s own replacement cycle rather than by share lossto Android.In our 2025 smartphone survey, iPhone posted the highest retention rate among major brands at 90% (Exhibit 3)when comparing respondents’ current phones to their previous devices - tied only with Huawei and ahead of all others. Whenlooking at respondents’ current phones versus their next intended purchase, Apple again led with an 80% (Exhibit 4) retention The second-life of iPhones can distort replacement cycle calculations. We estimate the current replacement cycle tobe 3.7 years.As shown in the smartphone survey done last year, only 44% of iPhones in use were the newest generations atthe time (iPhone 15 and 16, Exhibit 5), which mechanically implies a 4-5 year replacement cycle. Using respondents’ reportedprevious devices, we also saw ownership distributed across older models more broadly than expected. We believe this reflectsthe substantial refurbished iPhone market where second-hand iPhones remain in the installed base but do not get countedas new unit sales. As a result, calculating