增强约旦的财政空间和可持续性：宏观财政建模与预测工具的见解

Enhancing fiscal space and sustainabilityfor Jordan: insights from the Macro-fiscal © 2025 United NationsAll rights reserved worldwide Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply theexpression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status Links contained in this publication are provided for the convenience of the reader and are correct atthe time of issue. The United Nations takes no responsibility for the continued accuracy of that References have, wherever possible, been verified. Mention of commercial names and products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. United Nations publication issued by ESCWA, United Nations House, Riad El Solh Square,P.O. Box: 11–8575, Beirut, Lebanon. Website:www.unescwa.org. 2500817E The present technical paper was produced by the Economic and Social Commission for Western AuthorsJan Gaska (lead author), Clive Altshuler ReviewersNamsuk Kim, Julian Rodrick Slotman, Zhenqian Huang, Danyira Perez, Marwen Hkiri AcknowledgementsiiiIntroduction1 1.Background3 2.MFMF model and data5A.MFMF model5 B.Data 5 3.Baseline and policy simulation scenarios A.Baseline scenarioB.Policy simulations: analysed scenarios 4.Results: impact on macroeconomic indicators A.Impact on macroeconomic aggregatesB.Impact on government budget, debt and interest payments 5.Findings List of figures Figure 1.Government debt in the baseline and debt stabilization scenario until 2035Figure 2.Government budget balance in the baseline and debt stabilization scenario until 2035Figure 3.Deviation from GDP baseline in the three scenariosFigure 4.Inflation in the three scenariosFigure 5.Percentage deviation from baseline of real private consumptionFigure 6.Percentage deviation from baseline of real aggregate investmentFigure 7.Percentage deviation from baseline of real importsFigure 8.Percentage deviation from baseline of real exportsFigure 9.Additional expenditures relative to the baselineFigure 10.Additional revenues relative to the baselineFigure 11.Government primary balance in the baseline and policy scenarios Introduction The present technical paper sets out the insightsfrom a Macro-fiscal Modelling and Forecasting(MFMF) tool to enable policymakers to properlyuse the tool and interpret the modelling results.It analyses three policy relevant scenarios for a permanent gross domestic product (GDP)increase of 2.3 per cent and a privateconsumption increase of 1.7 per cent comparedwith the business-as-usual scenario. At the sametime, the fiscal space is higher by 19.7 billion 1.Background country’s primary fiscal deficit averaged nearly3 per cent of GDP, driving a substantial rise inpublic debt from 76 per cent of GDP in 2013 toapproximately 97 per cent in 2023, according tothe World Economic Outlook database. Thegovernment deficit was compounded by thedeficit of the Water Authority and the Over the past decade, the Jordanian economyhas been significantly impacted by a series ofexternal shocks and structural constraints.Regional instability, particularly the Syrian crisis,resulted in a substantial influx of refugees, Structurally, the Jordanian economy remainscharacterized by a narrow productive base, highdependence on imports, limited private sectordynamism, and persistent fiscal imbalances.These factors have impeded the country’s abilityto reach its full growth potential. Between 2010and 2022, the economy recorded an average GDP The JordanianEconomic Modernisation Vision,introduced in 2022, aims to address thesepressing challenges and to advance theSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in thenational context by focusing on accelerated economic growth and improved quality of lifefor all citizens. This vision is built on two A constrained growth environment, combinedwith low revenue mobilization, contributed to Implementing the Economic Modernization According to one estimate, the Jordanian SDGfinancing gap equals $115 billion for the period2023–2030, which is more than double the partnership with the United Nations Departmentof Economic and Social Affairs (DESA),developed the Macro-fiscal Modelling andForecasting (MFMF) tool for Jordan, whichallows the assessment of the macroeconomicimplications of different policy scenarios using a Jordanian GDP in 2023.3However, the space forfinancing social spending and investments islimited as interest payments consume a large part of fis