约旦宏观财政建模和预测工具用户手册

Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting Toolfor Jordan User Manual Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), email:publications-escwa@un.org. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply theexpression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal statusof any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of itsfrontiers or boundaries. Links contained in this publication are provided for the convenience of the reader and are correct atthe time of issue. The United Nations takes no responsibility for the continued accuracy of thatinformation or for the content of any external website. References have, wherever possible, been verified. Mention of commercial names and products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures.Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. United Nations publication issued by ESCWA, United Nations House, Riad El Solh Square,P.O. Box: 11–8575, Beirut, Lebanon. Website:www.unescwa.org. 2400756E Acknowledgements This Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting Tool for Jordan: User Manual was produced by theUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia under the leadership of NiranjanSarangi – Cluster Leader, Shared Economic Prosperity Cluster. With thanks to: Authors Jan Gaska (lead author), Clive Altshuler and Dana Hamdan. Reviewers Zhenqian Huang, Namsuk Kim and Danyira Perez. Summary This User Manual is a reference to betterunderstand the building of a macro-fiscalmodelling and forecasting (MFMF) tool forJordan as part of the joint capacity developmentproject launched by the United NationsEconomic and Social Commission for WesternAsia and the United Nations Department ofEconomic and Social Affairs for targeted UnitedNations Member States on macroeconomicmodelling and policy simulations. detailed explanation of the tool, including theequations of the underlying model, as adoptedfrom the United Nations World EconomicForecasting Model with extended scope fora single-country such as Jordan. The manual consists of four sections. The firstsection presents the introduction and a briefhistory of the World Economic ForecastingModel. Section two describes the structure ofthe MFMF tool explaining the division betweenthe publicly accessible and password-protectedcountry-specific area. The third section outlinesthe properties of the model via multiplieranalysis and describes how the MFMF tool canbe used to analyse alternative scenarios forinforming policy decisions. And section fourdiscusses the simulation interface andinterpretation of input variables. The MFMF tool offers decision makers anaccessible and dynamic interface for evaluatingmacroeconomic policy scenarios in a medium-term debt-to-gross domestic productstabilization framework. It supports optimizeddecision-making to foster growth-enhancingsocial expenditure, while maintainingmacroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.The purpose of this manual is to provide AcknowledgementsSummaryIntroduction iiiv1 1.Structure and contents of the macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting toolA.Publicly accessible section 33 B.Jordan-specific modelling section 4 2.The modelA.Introduction and history of the model 5B.Structure of the model6C.Properties of the model14 3.DataA.National accounts data 1919B.Government revenue and expenditure20 4.Operation of the simulation model and interpretation of resultsA.Interpretation of input variables B.Output variables 2628 References List of tablesTable 1.Data sources for variables on national accounts 19Table 2.Data sources for variables on government expenditure21Table 3.Data sources for variables on government revenue21Table 4.Data source for variables on government debt22 List of figuresFigure 1.Structure of the MFMF tool 3Figure 2.Multiplier for the output and inflation as a result of surge in government expenditure15Figure 3.Multiplier effect for public debt and the current account balance16Figure 4.Impact of increase in debt on main macroeconomic and fiscal variables17Figure 5.MFMF tool simulation interface25Figure 6.Output interface29 Introduction Macroeconomic modelling and forecasting havebecome more important than ever forGovernments around the world to assess theimpact of global econo