没有比家更好的地方：开始覆盖美国生物制药行业

There's no place like home;initiating coverage on U.S.Biopharmaceuticals Initiating Coverage U.S. BiopharmaceuticalsNEUTRALfrom Not Rated Afterhaving spent 8 years across the pond, we've come backhome to launch coverage on the U.S. mega-caps. Givenbroader macro uncertainty and threats of AI disruption toother sectors, we also see the space as a place for investors tocome back to in uncertain times. Most preferred names: LLY,MRK. Emily Field, CFA+1 212 526 4160emily.field@barclays.comBCI, US Xiao Guo+1 212 526 9609xiao.guo@barclays.comBCI, US There's no place like home...initiating coverage on U.S. Biopharmaceuticals:Although a lothas changed in the 8 years we spent in the UK for the global biopharmaceutical sector (US drugpricing policy finally being implemented via IRA and MFN with atariffscare felt along the way,the COVID surge leading to mRNA vaccine breakthroughs...which got U.S. through the pandemicbut led to uncertainty on the other side, the emergence of next-gen therapies for obesity and therate for pharmas to get a piece of the LLY/NVO pie, the battle for ascendancy to better upon PD-(L)1s in oncology with investments in ADCs and bispecifics), a few things have remained thesame. No matter where a pharma company is domiciled, the U.S. is each company's largestcommercial market. Furthermore, while the healthcare sector is far broader in the U.S.(encompassing services, devices, biotech, tools) and while healthcare is a much smaller slice ofthe overall equity market (not too much tech in Europe), pharma remains a relatively safe havenin times of uncertainty. As such, as we take a brand-new look at the U.S. Biopharmaceuticalmega cap companies freshoffFY26 guidance and looking into an increasingly uncertain cross-industry backdrop with concerns of generative AI disruption moving from sector to sector, wesee pharma as a place investors will come back home to in 2026 andinitiate coverage on U.S.Biopharmaceuticals with a Neutral industry view. Our OW names are LLY, MRK, BMY andABBV (in rough order of preference) followed by EW names GILD, BIIB and AMGN and we'reUW PFE. With this report we transfer coverage of Cytokinetics (CYTK) to Emily Field. Alexandre Bouilloux+1 212 526 9937alexandre.bouilloux@barclays.comBCI, US Hang Hu, PhD+1 212 526 6364hang.hu@barclays.comBCI, US Follow the Yellow Brick Road:When thinking about our coverage…we’re drawn to companiesthat have exciting pipeline stories, with relatively de-risked late stage programs and/orcompanies that have a very clear growth trajectory where we see the potential for upwardestimate revisions (and where positive pipeline surprises can drive multiple expansion). Wedetail our valuation methodology in a few paragraphs, but here's our rough order of preferencein our initiations today and our elevator pitch: FIGURE 1. Barclays U.S. Biopharma Coverage Universe, PTs, Upside/Downside and Elevator Pitch We're not in Kansas anymore...Not only is the overall sector construction and weighting of EUPharma significantlydifferentto the US (Pharma dominates the healthcare index in Europe,whereas the US has far greater services, tools and devices sectors)…there’s not much of a techsector so to speak. So on a relative basis, thinking about pharma as a group is adifferentexercise in the U.S. than it is in Europe.We’ll leave the broader sector allocation decisions toour strategists, but we see some reasons to be positive on the pharma space as we movemore into 2026: •Policy clarity emerging from 2025MFN/tariffoverhang: U.S. drug pricing reform has beenan ever-present sector overhang for over a decade now (following the infamous "HillaryTweet" during the 2016 Democratic Presidential primary in 2015). Though drug pricing didn't •Structural secular tailwinds remain intact: U.S. healthcare spending is projected to reach20.3% of GDP by 2033 (CMSOfficeof the Actuary), up from 18.0% in 2024. This ~$6.5 trillionaddressable market provides durability even as questions arise on consumer spending. Thegrowth in healthcare spend is likely to continue unabated regardless of the broadermacroeconomic environment as even though consumers are spending more of their ownmoney on healthcare it's far from a discretionary item. : °Aging demographics:65+ population rising from 17% to 21% by 2030 should driveincreased utilization of healthcare / pharmaceuticals. °Chronic disease prevalence(diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease) and incidencerising coupled with better/earlier diagnosis should increase utilization of therapeutics. °Technology adoption:(cell/gene therapies becoming moreefficient,precision oncologymore widely implemented with more targeted therapies, GLP-1s expanding addressablemarkets via wide telehealth adoption). •Pharma's defensive profile is being rediscovered: Bloomberg total return history fromJanuary 2000 through February 2026, shows that S&P Pharma (S5PHARX) outperformed theS&P 500 Total Return Index in all four major draw downs since 2000, with an avera