2025年度美国风险投资二级市场观察

2025 Annual US VCSecondary Market Watch Institutional Research Group Emily ZhengSenior Research Analyst,Venture Capital A deep dive into venture secondaries and theoutlook for 2026 pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on February 20, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents Key takeaways Key takeaways Secondaries are structural, not cyclicalMega-IPOs will create a temporary vacuum4Policy-aligned sectors will continue todominate secondary activityTender offers become the standardSPVs will persist, but under tighter controls7A broader buyer baseLooking forward •2026 will be a pivotal year for the venture secondary market as it evolves fromproving relevance to becoming the industry standard. •We estimate the total value traded through US VC secondaries in 2025 to be $106.3billion. The secondary market is rapidly approaching the scale of IPOs and M&A. •Secondaries are structural, not cyclical. The recent rise of institutional adoptionsignals that secondaries are becoming central to how capital is raised, allocated, Appendix: Methodology for directsecondaries market sizing •The market is top-heavy, with the top 20 startups on Hiive accounting for 86.4%of secondary trading value in Q4 2025,1so mega-IPOs will create a temporaryvacuum. However, in the long term, more IPOs will benefit secondaries by •Policy-aligned sectors will continue to dominate both primary and secondary VCactivity. AI, crypto, defense, and aerospace are capturing outsized secondary PitchBook is introducing our newPitchBookValuation Estimates, the industry’s first daily,standardized valuation framework designed to •Tender offers are becoming standard practice among leading startups. Regularcompany-led liquidity programs improve employee recruitment and retention while Powered by AI-driven valuation intelligence,PitchBook Valuation Estimates combinesmachine learning with best-in-class privatemarket data, public market signals, and capital •SPVs will persist but face greater oversight. Regulatory scrutiny is rising dueto some bad actors, and issuers are taking back the reins to stymie the slew ofunauthorized transactions. As a result, SPVs will be more limited to established Launching with coverage of more than 15,000VC-backed companies, PitchBook ValuationEstimates provides investors, advisors, andauditors with a transparent framework they can •The buyer base is broadening, with large new entrants such as PinegroveOpportunity Partners’ $2.2 billion venture secondary fund. US venture secondarydry powder reached $11.8 billion as of June 2025—up 2.8x since 2022—but still 2026 outlook 2025 VC exit value ($B) by type 2026 will be a pivotal year for the US venture secondary market as it evolves intothe industry standard. The past several years legitimized venture secondaries asstartups stayed private for longer and exits remained few and far between. Whatwill differentiate 2026 will be not just incremental growth but also a behavioral shift.Startups and investors across VC are integrating secondaries into capital planning, We estimate that $62.5 billion to $120.9 billion was traded through US VC directsecondaries in 2025.2This intentionally broad range reflects both the opacity of themarket and the outsized impact of megacap outliers that are speculated to go public in At the midpoint of our estimate ($91.7 billion), annualized venture direct secondaryvalue rose 14.2% from the prior quarter’s $80.3 billion. Much of this accelerationwas driven by surging valuations for venture’s top performers. A headline example is Combined with ourGP-led venture secondariesestimate of $14.6 billion, thetotal estimated market size for US venture secondaries in 2025 is $106.3 billion.Secondaries are rapidly approaching the scale of public listings and acquisitions, Secondaries are structural, not cyclical During the pandemic-era boom, secondaries provided access to highly sought-afterstartups amid oversubscribed rounds. More recently, they provided much-neededliquidity in a parched market. Their relevance at both extremes reinforces the notion A growing wave of acquisitions and partnerships since October signals that venturesecondaries have become a strategic priority for the world’s most influential financialinstitutions. Goldman Sachs’ acquisition of investor Industry Ventures exemplifiesthis shift, extending the firm’s reach across the venture lifecycle and enabling wealthmanagement clients to access de-risked venture exposure through secondaries.Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab quickly followed, acquiring the platforms Beyond acquisitions, leading banks are actively institutionalizing venture secondariesby building private market capabilities internally. J.P. Morgan has formed a dedicatedprivate capital team within its investment bank, while Piper Sandler launched private Mega-IPOs will c