2026 年至今最值得关注的13张核心图表

Tim Baker Macro Strategist+1-212-250-9127 We highlight 13 of our favorite charts from the year so far. nTheUSgrowth pulse has exceeded expectations in the past 9 months,perhaps aided by a quiet deregulatory push (Figure 1). Still, the rest of theworld has caught up, so exceptionalism has faded - unlike in 2023/24, theUS isn't extremely high in the rankings for interest rates, GDP growth, orequity market performance (Figure 2). That's an environment in which othercurrencies can do well. nJapan's current account surplus is around record levels - above 5% of GDP(Figure 3). In our view, that adds to the weight of evidence of excessive yenweakness. Foreign investors seem to see the appeal of Japanese assets -they've been buying record amounts of securities in the past year (Figure 4).The big question is what policymakers and local investors do now. Takaichihas substantial authority after winning a record share of Diet seats for theLDP (Figure 5). We're neutral yen, but follow policymaker commentary andthe flows data closely. nAustraliahas a very strong government spending pulse compared to peers(Figure 6), which is contributing to a relatively strong labor market (Figure7). As a result, the RBA has re-commenced hikes, and AUD has a bit moreupside to fully reconnect with rates (Figure 8). nPopulation growth has been robust in Australia - another driver of the story(Figure 9).Canadastands in stark contrast - the population actually shrankin Q3, after robust growth for years. The government is prioritising capex,but it's yet to show up - business surveys point to growth staying soggy(Figure 10). Canada also has about the softest export growth in the world(Figure 11). The inflation pulse is now softening, which could lead toanother BoC cut. We're bearish CAD. nUS tradepatterns have shifted - the country now imports quite a bit morefrom Thailand and Vietnam (combined) than China (Figure 12). It's possiblesome trans-shipment is at work. US imports from Taiwan have more thandoubled in the past year, suggesting increased reliance that could havesecurity implications (Figure 13). Figure 2: US exceptionalism has faded; it's dropping in therankings for equities, yields & growth Figure 4: Foreigners have been buying a record amount ofJapanese assets Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 5: The LDP's win was massive (vs the last election,and vs history), giving Takaichi a lot of authority Figure 6: Australia's government spending is far strongerthan elsewhere Source : Japan government, Deutsche Bank Research 19 February 2026FX Blog Figure 9: Aussie population growth remains very strong,even as it has eased elsewhere (especially NZ & Canada) Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research 19 February 2026FX Blog Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Tim Baker. 19 February 2026FX Blog Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deu