塞尔维亚共和国：建立税收支出报告框架

REPLIC OFSERBIA Building A Framework for Tax ExpendituresReporting March2026 Prepared By Mario Mansour, Martin Grote, André Patry, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Charles Vellutini This technical assistance was provided with financial support from the EuropeanUnion and the Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs. High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportFiscal AffairsDepartment Republic ofSerbia: Building A Framework for Tax Expenditures ReportingPrepared by Mario Mansour, Martin Grote, André Patry, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Charles Vellutini TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries ofthe assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-levelobjectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:This technical assistance report responds to the Republic of Serbia’s request for acomprehensive framework to report tax expenditures across the personal income tax (PIT), corporateincome tax (CIT), and value-added tax (VAT). It defines benchmark tax systems for these three majortaxes, outlines methodologies for estimating associated tax expenditures, and provides preliminaryresults. The analysis shows that VAT-related tax expenditures represent the largest fiscal cost, followedby PIT and CIT. VAT benefits are disproportionately captured by higher-consumption households, whileCIT benefits are heavily concentrated among a small number of large firms. The report recommendsinstitutionalizing regular tax expenditure reporting, improving data governance and inter-agencycoordination, and strengthening capacity for microsimulation modeling to support ongoing fiscal analysisand enhance transparency. The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of Serbia (the "CD recipient") in response to theirrequest for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects within 30 business days ofits transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org (seeStaff Operational Guidance onthe Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background The Republic of Serbia initiated in 2025 a project to establish a robust framework for producing taxexpenditure reports, a critical tool in enhancing fiscal transparency and accountability. Tax expendituresrepresent revenue losses due to preferential tax treatments and are often less scrutinized than directgovernment spending. Recognizing the importance of integrating tax expenditures into fiscalmanagement, the Serbian Ministry of Finance sought technical assistance from the InternationalMonetary Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department to develop methodologies and tools for identifying, estimating,and reporting tax expenditures on the country’s three main taxes: personal income tax (PIT), corporateincome tax (CIT), and value-added tax (VAT). These taxes collectively account for over 70 percent ofSerbia’s total tax revenue, underscoring the significance of understanding their fiscal and economicimplications. The project involved close collaboration with Serbian authorities, including the Ministry of Finance, theState Tax Administration and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, and was supportedfinancially by the European Union and the Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs. This initiative alignswith global good practices and international standards, including in the European Union, andcomplements Serbia’s broader fiscal policy and budgetary reform efforts. It aims to improve the quality offiscal policy analysis, enhance the budget process, and support evidence-based decision-making byenabling systematic evaluation of tax expenditures. Summary of Findings The technical assistance report submitted to the Serbian authorities established detailed benchmark taxsystems for Serbia’s PIT, CIT, and VAT, against which tax expenditures were identified and quantified.The PIT is complex, featuring a dual structure of schedular taxes, and a supplementary progressivesurtax with significant allowances and exemptions that constitute major tax expenditures. The CIT taxbenchmark incorporates the standard 15 percent tax rate on profits, excluding preferential treatmentssuch as tax holidays, exemptions, and enhanced deductions. The VAT benchmark was defined as asingle uniform tax on final consumption at a rate of 20 percent, with exemptions and reduced ratesidentified as sources of tax expenditures. Key elements of government were excluded from the estimatesfor VAT given that they provide public services, and that their exemption or taxation would yield no netrevenue impact. Preliminary estimates indicate that total tax expenditures amount to approximately 3.1 percent of GDP,with VAT expenditures representing the largest share at nearly 1.9 percent of GDP, followed by PIT at0.85 percent and CIT at 0.4 percent. VAT tax expenditures are predominantly driven by reduced rates onfood and hea