全球生育率对气候相关危害的反应取决于人口破坏、致死率和危害类型

11330 Global Fertility Responses to Climate-RelatedHazards Depend on Population Disruption,Lethality, and Hazard TypePublic Disclosure Authorized Leonardo Bonilla MejíaAlejandro Lopez-FeldmanAna Maria Tribin UribeStefany Lopez Vera Development EconomicsGlobal Indicators GroupMarch 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11330 Abstract Global fertility is declining, yet it remains unclear whetherand how climate-related hazards contribute to realizedfertility change. This paper combines global fertility datawith disaster records for 1950–2023 to estimate fertilityresponses to climate-related hazards, distinguishing betweenpopulation disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethal-ity (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show nosystematic fertility response under population disruptionbut are associated with persistent fertility reductions underlethality lasting at least 15 years. Aggregate climate esti-mates mask heterogeneity across hazard types: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heatand cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases.Hydrological events show additional negative effects inhigh-lethality episodes. Over time, disruption-based effectsremain weak, and lethality-based effects are consistentlynegative, although they have attenuated in recent decades.Fertility responses vary little across income groups, andnon-climatedisasters remain fertility-reducing.Theseresults show that fertility responses to climate risk dependon hazard type and lethal severity, rather than on how manypeople are affected. This paper is a product of the Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by theWorld Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions aroundthe world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authorsmay be contacted at atribinuribe@worldbank.org; alejandro.lopez.feldman@efd.gu.se; lbonilme@banrep.gov.co; andstefany.lopez@udea.edu.co. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Global Fertility Responses to Climate-Related HazardsDepend on Population Disruption, Lethality, and HazardType Leonardo Bonilla Mejía,1Alejandro Lopez-Feldman,2,3Ana Maria Tribin Uribe,4andStefany Lopez Vera5 1Banco de la República, Colombia2University of Gothenburg, Sweden3Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico4The World Bank, Washington D.C.5Universidad EAFIT, Colombia Keywords:fertility, climate-related hazards, natural disasters, population disruption, disasterlethality, hazard heterogeneity 1Introduction Global fertility rates have experienced a sharp and near-universal decline in recent decades (Figure1). In the mid-twentieth century, fertility levels exceeded five births per woman in Africa, Asia, andLatin America and the Caribbean, and were around three in Europe, Northern America, and Oceania.By 2023, fertility had fallen to below two births per woman in most regions of the world, except inOceania, where fertility remains close to replacement, and Africa, which—despite still recording thehighest levels—has experienced a substantial decline from 6.5 births per woman in 1950 to justabove four in 2023 (United Nations,2024). As a result, most high-income countries are now well below replacement levels, and manymiddle- and low-income countries are also converging toward lower fertility (Götmark and An-dersson,2020;Doepke,2015;de Silva and Tenreyro,2020;Büttner et al.,2024;Aitken,2024). Theseshifts have traditionally been attributed to rising education, delayed marriage, greater access tocontraception, women’s labor market opportunities, and the rising economic, social, and opportunitycosts of child-rearing. Yet emerging global challenges—most notably climate change and increasingenvironmental instability—have prompted new questions about whether environmental risk anduncertainty are becoming an additional force shaping reproductive attitudes and behavior. A growing number of studies indicate that perceptions of climate change, expressed asanxiety,