2025年上半年市场状况SVB的创新经济展望（英）

February 2026 3Letter From the Authors5Perspectives on the Innovation Economy6Macro11Fundraising and Investment20Regional Tech Hubs The results are in. Overall, it was a great year in venture, even assome participants were left clapping on the sidelines. Last year, wesaw nearly $340B of venture capital (VC) investment, cash runwayincreased across all sectors, Series A tech deal activity began toimprove, and IPO and M&A activity hit the highest point since 2021. we expect this trend to flip in 2026, anticipating moderate dealgrowth driven by the AI platform shift and growing investor If history is a guide, we must temper our short-term expectations forAI. Many investors we speak with who have been active participantssince the dot-com era say this is the largest platform shift in theircareer, while also acknowledging a potential bubble. In the threeyears since ChatGPT’s release, five AI companies have achievedvalues three times higher than all dot-com-era IPOs. There are clearsigns of overexuberance in AI: high burn multiples, low revenue per These multi-billion-dollardeals may be venture inname, but they havefundamentally differentrisk and return profiles After 40 years on the job, some guys buy themselves a Corvette.Masayoshi Son bought a $30B stake in OpenAI. The SoftBank founderwasn’t the only VC breaking the mold in 2025. The definition ofventure has expanded to include a new class of mega funds andcompanies. The power law distribution in venture has a heavier headthan ever, with the top 1% of all venture deals accounting for one-third of all investment. These multi-billion-dollar deals may be From Masayoshi Son’s $30B overtures to the quiet resurgence ofsub-$100M deals, venture is playing a more complex tune than everbefore. We enter 2026 mindful of the dot-com echoes and the heavy-headed power law, but we remain bullish. In periods of platformshifts, hype is unavoidable. But when the noise dissipates, true At the other end of the spectrum, the funding environment is verydifferent. The bottom half of US VC-backed companies by valuationaccounted for just 7% of all investment. While capital invested in Marc CadieuxPresidentSVB Commercial Bankmcadieux@svb.com Mark GallagherHead of Investor CoverageSVB Commercial Bankmgallagher@svb.com 5 AI companies have achieved 3x more valuethan all IPOs during the dot-com era Venture funds struggle to raise, hitting seven-year low; those that close take longer to do so Jump to Page Compounding challenges: Revenue required tofundraise is highertoday, yet growth is slower VC investment hit second-highest year, one-third of capital went to the top 1% of companies Jump to Page $4.4T locked in US VC-backed tech unicorns:secondary transactions ease liquidity thirst Median seedvaluationshave nearly doubledsince 2021 given high demandand low supply Jump to Page Jump to Page2025 IPOs had a wide range of revenue,which many active unicorns surpassed Geopolitics and US policy push defensetech from covert to overt “The secondary market is not a substitute forIPOs.It’s a liquidity mechanism thatextends runway, relieves pressure ofcompanies going public too early, rewardsemployees, and dampens volatility alongthe exit path—but it doesn’t eliminate theneedtogopublic.At scale, once companiesreach tens of billions of dollars in value, there “Almost every LP of importance tells us thesame thing right now: We’re swimmingtoward early stage and away from the largeplatform funds.They understand thereturn dynamics, and they alsorecognize that big platforms have had a “I’ve seen several big tech waves over my career—internet, mobile, SaaS, cloud—AI is thebiggest. It’s also the most competitive.Whenyou’re a winner, or even perceived as one,you get this hyper-boost that pulls youfurther and further away from the pack.Is EricThomassianHead of PrivateCompanyRelations 2026 marks the first year wehave published this forecast. 2025 Forecast PerformancePoor:66% Accuracy for 2025 2025 Forecast PerformancePoor:48% Accuracy for 2025 2025 Forecast PerformanceExcellent:97% Accuracy for 2025 VC deal count under $100M is among themost telling measures of the fundraisingenvironment for most companies—and it isat a decade low. Companies without thesupercharged star power of a repeatfounder or an AI phenom faced a soberlandscape in 2025. We expect the tide toturn in 2026 and bring modest gains to dealactivity under $100M. Exits will recycle Even as nearly $340B has flowed into USVC deals in 2025, US VC fundraising fell toa seven-year low. AI’s continued surge andthe uptick in exits in 2025 seem to havelined the coffers of growth funds but notmost VC funds. Heading into 2026, weexpect fundraising to increase this year assome capital starts to cycle back to LPs Series A tech deal activity matched ourexpectations of a turnaround. Even as therevenue benchmark (at the median) toraise a Series A increased 35% year-over-year, deal activity increased 8% over 2024.Momentum continues into 2