从培训到收入：双学徒制对青年就业的7年影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper From Training to Earning The 7-Year Impact of Dual Apprenticeshipson Youth Employment Bruno CréponEva LestantPatrick Premand A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11312 Abstract This paper studies the long-term impacts of dual appren-ticeships on youth employment in a high-informality labormarket. A Randomized Controlled Trial in Côte d’Ivoirewith four follow-up surveys collected over seven years showsthat dual apprenticeships have sustained impacts: youthearnings increase by 14 to 20 percent two to five years afterprogram completion. Gains are observed across the earn- percent. Importantly, results highlight a distinct pathwaywhereby training raises earnings through self-employment,with no impact on access to wage employment. Youth per-form more complex, non-routine tasks, consistent withimproved technical skills and productivity. In a settingwhere formal wage jobs are rare, these findings show that The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those FromTrainingtoEarning:The7-YearImpactofDualApprenticeships BrunoCr´eponEvaLestantPatrickPremand JEL classification: J24, O12, C93.Keywords: Employment, Self-Employment, Working Poverty, Apprenticeship, Training, Voca- 1Introduction In many low- or middle-income economies, formal wage jobs are rare, but a large share ofthe population works in low-paying casual jobs or subsistence self-employment (Filmer et al., 2014; Breza and Kaur, 2025). In this context, many individuals have low earnings and working poverty is widespread.Skills training is one of the most common instruments considered aspart of policies to address these employment challenges, and the literature on its effectivenessis vast.1 Yet the pathways through which training raises earnings in highly informal labormarkets or lifts individuals out of working poverty remain imperfectly understood.On the one hand, the existing literature on training most often considers how programs facilitate the This paper takes up these questions by analyzing dual apprenticeships that combine ex-tended on-the-job training with complementary technical training in vocational centers. Whileapprenticeships are increasingly considered by policy makers, credible evidence on their long- Specifically, we analyze a dual apprenticeship program in Cˆote d’Ivoire that combines on-the-job training in small or medium enterprises, similar to the traditional apprenticeships prevalentin West Africa, with center-based technical training and a temporary subsidy paid to appren-tices for up to 24 months. In an earlier article, we analyzed the short-term effects of introducingthis dual apprenticeship model on both youth and firms (Cr´epon and Premand, 2024). Using adouble-sided randomized design, we showed that the program substantially increased youth en- We find that dual apprenticeships generate sizable and persistent impacts: earnings increase by 14 to 20 percent two to five years after program completion. These gains are observed acrossthe earnings distribution, including at the bottom. In particular, dual apprenticeships reducethe share of youth in extreme working poverty—earning less than half the formal minimum Importantly, these earnings gains do not stem from increased access to wage employment.Instead, they are driven by higher earnings in self-employment, associated with higher hourlyearnings and youth performing more complex, non-routine tasks, consistent with improved The main contribution of the paper is to provide the first experimental estimates of the im-pacts of dual apprenticeships on youth employment and sustained exit out of working poverty in First, recent syntheses show that the average effects of job training programs are typicallymodest, particularly for public interventions, and that long-run evidence on earnings trajecto-ries remains scarce (Carranza and McKenzie, 2024). We add to the limited number of studies that analyze medium- to long-term impacts of Active Labor Market Policies in developing coun-tries.3We do so by documenting not only the persistence of impacts, but also their significance Second, we specifically study “dual apprenticeships” that combine on-the-job and center-based training. There is still limited experimental evidence on dual training, with the exceptionof Attanasio et al. (2011), who study a classroom training combined with 6-month internships.We also complement the broader literature analyzing on-the-job training models. For instance, Third, we