从银行到非银行：宏观审慎和货币政策对企业贷款的影响（英）

*The views in this paper represent only our own and should therefore not be reported as representing the views of the InternationalMonetary Fund, its Executive Board, or IMF management. We would like to thank Dominic Cucic, Adriano Fernandes, AngélicaLizarazo, Carolina López-Quiles, James Walsh, Sharjil Haque, S. Pelin Berkmen, Romain Bouis, and participants at the IMFMacrofinancial Seminar for their suggestions and comments.†International Monetary Fund, and Univ Coimbra, CeBER, Faculty of Economics. Email: BAlbuquerque@imf.org.‡International Monetary Fund. Email: ECerutti@imf.org.§Columbia Business School. Email: NChen25@gsb.columbia.edu.IMF Working PaperFrom Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending*Prepared by Bruno Albuquerque†, Eugenio Cerutti‡, Nanyu Chen§, and Melih FiratAuthorized for distribution by Kenneth KangMay2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important but underexploredquestions about how both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policies (MaPP) affect lending and the realeconomy. Using syndicated loan data, we examine the joint impact of MP and MaPP shocks on credit supply tononfinancial firms. Our findings show that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, cushioning firms—particularly thosewith existing nonbank relationships—from policy tightening. We also find that these shocks drive credit awayfrom weaker banks toward nonbanks, raising concerns about credit quality. Finally, we provide evidence thatMaPPs on banks can lead them, especially weaker banks, to shift lending to nonbanks and away fromnonfinancial corporations. This allows nonbanks to expand their role in corporate credit markets. Overall, ourfindings highlight that tighter MP and MaPP may unintentionally push credit intermediation into a sector largelyoutside the regulatory perimeter, posing new financial stability risks.C33, E32, E44, E58, G28, R31Housing booms; Housing busts; Credit booms; MacroprudentialpoliciesBAlbuquerque@imf.org, ECerutti@imf.org,NChen25@gsb.columbia.edu, MFirat@imf. ¶International Monetary Fund: Email: MFirat@imf.org.¶JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords:Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: 1IntroductionNonbank financial institutions have significantly expanded their footprint in the global financialsystem over the past two decades.According to the most recent Financial Stability Boardreport, the share of global financial assets held by nonbanks increased from 43 percent in 2008to 49 percent in 2023 (Financial Stability Board 2024).Consistent with this trend, Figure1 shows that the share of corporate loans intermediated by nonbanks in the syndicated loanmarket has risen sharply, reaching nearly 50 percent by the end of 2024, up from just over30 percent during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).1loan origination is primarily driven by the most financially developed markets, particularly theUnited States, the broader shift from bank to nonbank credit intermediation has implicationsfor borrowers worldwide.Figure 1: Nonbank share in the corporate syndicated loan market.2.3.4.5Share1990q1Notes:Nonbank share is the loan amount outstanding intermediated by nonbanks relative to the total loan amount.In this paper, we focus on the implications of the growing role of nonbanks in corporate creditintermediation for both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policy (MaPP). Recentevidence from the U.S. suggests that the nonbank sector expands and increases its presence incredit markets following contractionary MP shocks (Den Haan and Sterk 2011, Nelson et al.2018, Xiao 2020, Drechsler et al. 2022, Agarwal et al. 2023). This expansion allows nonbanks topartially mitigate the transmission of MP to the real economy (Elliott et al. 2022, 2024, Cucicand Gorea 2024). The countercyclical expansion of nonbanks during contractionary MP shocks1Our sample includes lenders from 22 countries, as described in Section 2. Figure A.1 in Appendix A showsthat our sample covers most syndicated loan deals in Dealogic. Our estimate of the nonbank share is consistentwith Abbas et al. (2025) and Albuquerque et al. (2025), who use the same dataset with a broader countrycoverage. While the growing role of nonbanks in1995q12000q12005q12010q12015q12020q12025q1Year-Quarter2 is commonly attributed to the deposits channel of MP. As policy rate hikes widen the spreadbetween the policy rate and deposit rates, funding frictions intensify, prompting deposit outflowsfrom the banking sector. These outflows constrain banks’ lending capacity, and therefore leadto a migration of credit supply toward nonbanks (Drechsler et al. 2017). In addition, Cucic andGorea (2024) find that in Denmark, the in