莫桑比克的增长挑战和政策重点

Growth Challenges andPolicy Priorities inMozambique Can Sever SIP/2026/014 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on January 28, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/46. 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Growth Challenges and Policy Priorities in Mozambique, Republic of MozambiquePrepared by Can Sever* Authorized for distribution by Pablo Lopez MurphyFebruary2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on January 28, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/46. ABSTRACT:Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016 with two-thirds of the population below thepoverty line. While over half a million young people enter the job market annually, job creation remains weak, asstructural transformation has favored extractive industries (in particular, capital-intensive LNG projects) overmanufacturing. Agriculture, employing three-quarters of the population, suffers from low productivity and limitedaccessto inputs and finance.Informality dominates,accounting for about 95 percent of jobs.Humandevelopment indicators are among the world’s lowest, with fiscal pressures constraining social and developmentspending. To tackle Mozambique’s growth challenges, reforms must promote economic diversification, job-richgrowth, agricultural modernization, improved governance, and expanded access to finance. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Can Sever. 2026. "Growth Challenges and Policy Priorities in Mozambique;Republic of Mozambique; IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/26/014).Washington, D.C.: International MonetaryFund. Growth Challenges and PolicyPriorities in Mozambique Republic ofMozambique Prepared by Can Sever1 REPUBLIC OFMOZAMBIQUE SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAfrican Department Prepared ByCan Sever (AFR) GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICIES PRIORITIES _________________________________ 2 A. Introduction __________________________________________________________________________3B. Growth Performance _________________________________________________________________4C. Job Creation __________________________________________________________________________6D. Structural Transformation and Diversification_________________________________________7E. Productivity in Agriculture_____________________________________________________________7F. Informality ____________________________________________________________________________8G. Physical Infrastructure and Human Capital____________________________________________8H. Credit to the Private Sector _________________________________________________________ 10I. Governance __________________________________________________________________________ 11J. Way Forward ________________________________________________________________________ 12 FIGURES 1. Economic Growth and Poverty ________________________________________________________52. The Urgent Need for a Job-Intensive Growth Model __________________________________63. Structural Transformation and Diversification _________________________________________74. Agriculture Productivity _______________________________________________________________85. Development Indicators_______________________________________________________________96. Investment in Physical Infrastructure and Social Spending __________________________ 107. Credit to the Private Sector _________________________________________________________ 118. Corruption Perceptions and Governance Indicators _________________________________ 12 GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICY PRIORITIES2 Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016 with two-thirds of the population below thepoverty line. While over half a million young people enter the job market annually, job creation remainsweak, as structural transformation has favored extractive industries (in particular, capital-intensive LNGprojects) over manufacturing. Agriculture, employing three-quarters of the population, suffers from lowproductivity and limited access to inputs and finance. Informality dominates, accounting for about 95percent of jobs. Human development indicators are among the world’s lowest, with fiscal pressuresconstraining social and development spending. To tackle Mozambique’s growth challenges, reforms mustpromote economic diversification, job-rich growth, agricultural modernization, improved governance, andexpanded access to finance. A.Introduction 1.Mozambique stands at a critical juncture in its development trajectory. After a decade anda half of robust growth averaging nearly 8 percent annually, the economy has experienced a sharpslowdown since 2016, compounded by structural vulnerabilities and governance ch