新能源汽车追踪报告 - 2025：20%稳健增长，但2026年增速预期放缓

EV TRACKER - 2025: Solid year of 20% growth, but expectationsare for slower 2026 December’25 global passenger xEV (BEV + PHEV) sales reached 2.12M (+6%YoY, +7% MoM). 2025 xEV sales grew by 20% YoY to 20.5M units reaching 28%penetration.For December, China accounted for 63% of global xEV sales followed byEurope at 23% and N. America at 5%. Readers can download the EV tracker data set here: Link. We forecast 14% EV sales growth in 2026 which will take xEV penetration to c. 32%. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com China EV sales declined by -2% YoY, while the U.S. saw a sharp -40% YoY declinefollowing the removal of CVC incentives.In contrast, Europe and the RoW recordedstrong growth. EV sales inChinawere 1,345K units (-2% YoY) in December and 12.9Munits in 2025 (+16% YoY).European EV salesremained solid at 483K units (+44% YoY,+35% in 2025).N. Americasaw a decline in demand with EV sales of 109K units (-40%YoY, -5% in 2025).RoWgrew by78% YoYto 186K units. Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Outside of China BEV demand growth accelerated (+26% YoY in December), whileboth BEV (-5% YoY) and PHEV (+2% YoY) demand slowed in China as the marketmatured.PHEV sales increased by +6% y-o-y to 744K units (+10% in 2025) while BEVsgrew by +6% to 1,379K units (+26% in 2025). BEV sales accounted for 59% of China xEVsales, 72% for Europe, 80% for N. America and 83% for RoW. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Among the OEMs, BYD, Tesla and Geely continued to lead sales, although both BYDand Tesla posted a YoY sales decline in December.In December, BYD (SNE data) soldthe most monthly units with 353K (-20% YoY, -6% in 2025). Tesla was second at 192Kunits (-6% YoY), followed by Geely with 100K units (+33% YoY) and Shanghai GM Wulingwith 80K units (-16% YoY). For European brands, VW was strongest with 48K units (+49%YoY), BMW sold 46K units (-6%), Mercedes 31K units (+1%), and Volvo 31K units (+3%). Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.comHengliang Zhang Battery demand is outstripping EV demand as batteries get cheaper and bigger.Li-ion battery demand for passenger EVs increased 12% YoY to 111GWh in December whichwas higher than xEV sales. Battery sales in China were 65.5GWh (+8% YoY), Europe were27.2GWh (+45% YoY), N. America were 8.4GWh (-39% YoY).2025 EV battery increased +852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.comGali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT, Gotion and CALB posted the fastest growth in 2025. CATL market share remained steady at 36.5% in 2025. In December, CATL sold 43.7GWh(+24% YoY,39.5% M/S) withfull‑yeargrowth of 27%. BYD remained second with 19.0GWh(+6% Alice Buckley+44 20 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.comMika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com YoY, 17.1% M/S), followed by LGES at 12.0GWh(+6% YoY, 10.8% M/S; +12% for 2025).Panasonic held 3.0% M/S (3.4GWh,+1% YoY). Samsung SDI declined to 2.2GWh(‑6%YoY, 2.0% M/S) with a 3% drop for 2025. LFP market is close to becoming the dominant battery chemistry as share increasedto 48% this month (+2%-points YoY, -4%-points MoM).During the month, NMC madeup52%of global xEV installations, down from54%last year, while LFP rose from46% Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com to48%. In China, LFP held 65% (vs. 67% in Dec’24), andex‑Chinait climbed to 23% (vs.12% last year), underscoring rapid global LFP. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Global EV growth increased by 20% in 2025, which was marginally down from the 20% growth in 2025. Passenger xEV salesreached a record 20.5MM units which represents 28% of all car sales. In 2026, we expect xEV sales penetration will reach32%, which means that 1 in every 3 cars sold globally will either be a battery electric vehicle or a hybrid. Despite the impressivegrowth there are two noticeable trends. Firstly, EV growth slowed sharply coming into year-end, after what was a strong firsthalf of 2025. In December, xEV sales y-o-y growth fell to single digit, marking the weakest pace of growth since February2024. A major reason for this is that China sales growth cooled following a blistering pace set in 1H25. Another key trend wasthe slow-down in US demand following the removal of the CVC credit. In December, the U.S. experienced a sharp -40% y-o-y decline following the removal of CVC incentives. Demand slowed in the US, Europe and RoW where sales were particularly Energy storage:2025 was an extraordinary year for energy storage companies with significant out-performance acrossthe value chain. While EV sales were robust (2025 xEV battery demand increased by 25% y-o-y), the upside surprise was th