2025年利润低于预期；煤炭价格稳定将支撑2026年盈利

resilient coal price to support2026 earnings 2025 profit below consensus; resilient coalprice to support 2026 earnings Target PriceHK$38.00(Previous TPHK$31.00)Up/Downside12.6%Current PriceHK$33.76 Yancoal’s(YAL)net profit in 2025came in at A$440mn (-64%YoY),which is15% below Bloomberg consensus but 20% above our estimates due to the highearnings sensitivityto the unit cash margin.YAL declared a final dividend ofA$0.122/shr. This, together with the interim dividend of A$0.062/shr, implies apay-outratio of 55%whichis in line with YAL’s dividend policy.Looking into2026, we forecast 3% attributable sales volume growth along with ~1% increasein unit cash cost due to the sticky raw material cost inflation.Meanwhile, werevise up our coal price assumptions by 8%/7% in 2026E/27Eas we see signsof coal price stabilisationYTD.Our earnings forecast for 2026E/27E isthereforerevised up by 26%/10%.We maintainourBUYratingon YALdue to(1) resilientseabornecoal priceunderpinned bythe production cut policy in Indonesia China Energy Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Key highlights in 2025 results.Revenue dropped 13% YoY to A$5.83bn,as the 1% YoYattributablecoal sales volume growth (to38.1mt) was morethan offset by the17% YoY decline in blended coal ASP (to A$146/t).Otherincomedropped 53% YoY to A$74mn due to the lack ofFX gains(A$149mnin2024).Net profit declined 64%to A$440mn due to operating de- Unit cash costdropped only 1%YoYin2025.YAL achieved unit cashcost (excluding royalties) of A$92/t in2025. The reduction is less than ourexpectationgiven the high utilisation rates of mines.Given the recent Healthy cash position.As atend-2025, Yancoal hadgrosscash of A$2bn,equivalent to ~25% of the current market cap. 2026guidanceintroducedby YAL:(1)attributable saleable production:36.5-40.5mn tonnes (-5% to +5% YoY); (2) operating cash cost (excludingroyalties): A$90-98/t (-2% to +7% YoY); (3)capex: A$750-900mn (up 0%- Auditor: ShineWing Australia Key risks:(1) further decline in coal price; (2)elevatedinputcost; (3) Related Reports 1.YancoalAustralia–Productionvolumein3Q25affectedbyunfavourable weather–21 Oct 2025(link)2.YancoalAustralia–Weak earningsbut largely anticipated; Expect animprovement trend of coalprice–20 Aug 2025 (link)3.YancoalAustralia-Strong extreme weather that affects production and delivery.. Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source: Companydata,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL,CMBIGM Source: Companydata,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL,CMBIGM Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesNote:Excluding government royalties Valuation We value YAL by net present value (NPV), calculated by the future cash flow of all thereserves based on their effective mine life.We maintainourBUYratingwith newTP of Changesinkey assumptions include: Long-term thermal and metallurgical coal price (startingfrom2029E) ofA$140/t (previously:A$130/t)and A$200/t(unchanged)respectively. Our higher LT thermalcoal price is to reflect the higher-than-expected powerconsumption.Long-term unit cash costinflation of 1% p.a.(unchanged).WACC of7.2% (previously:6.7%):Risk-free rate of4.5% (previously: 4%),basedon10-yearAustralian governmentbond yield;risk premium of6%, 0.5x beta, and Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities orissuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealtin or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”)is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merch