电力科技革命：未来的形态

The shape of things to come Daan WalterSam Butler-SlossKingsmill Bond, CFA September, 2025 The Age of Electrotech Humanity is graduating from burning fossilcommodities to harnessing manufacturedtechnologies—from hunting scarce fossils to farming theinexhaustible sun, from consuming Earth's resources tomerely borrowing them. Short-terms setbacks matter, but fundamentals mattermore. And the fundamentals are stacked inelectrotech’sfavour. Physics. Electrotech makes a mockery of setting fossilson fire and losing two-thirds of the energy to heat.Electrotech is three times as efficient. This isn't a marginal climate substitution. It's an energyrevolution. Economics. Technologies get cheaper with scale.Commodities get more expensive the deeper you dig. The magnetic centre is the electron: we arerevolutionising how we generate, use, and connectelectrons. Solar and wind are conquering electricitysupply. EVs, heat pumps, and AI are electrifying majornew uses. Batteries and digitalisation are connectingsupply and demand. Geopolitics. Three quarters of the world is dependent onfossil imports. 92% of countries have renewablespotential over 10x their current demand. Electrotech has grown exponentially for decades. Thedifference today is that it's too cheap to contain andtoo big to ignore. If current exponentials hold for fivemore years, global fossil demand will fall off its plateau. Three reinforcing shifts. One energy revolution. Theelectrotech revolution. At its core, this revolution is driven by physics,economics, and geopolitics. After all, the arc of energyhistory bends towards solutions that are leaner,cheaper and more secure. Welcome to the Age of Electrotech. Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss, Kingsmill Bond Contents 2The rise ofelectrotech 3Peak fossildemand 6Seize theopportunity 1Anewperspective 5Profoundimpact 4Fundamentaldrivers Chapter 1A New Perspective: The Electrotech Revolution 03 01 02 Electrotech is electricitytechnology Electrotechisa better way toexplain reality Electrotech releases 100xmore energy Most of the debate on the future ofenergy is between fossilgradualists and net zeroadvocates. We propose a thirdapproach—the electrotechrevolution—which better explainsthe extraordinary changes takingplace in the energy system today. Electrotech describes exponentialenergy technologiesrevolutionising how we generate,connect and use electrons–technologies enjoying learningcurves and rapid growth, such assolar, wind, batteries, and digitalsolutions. Electrotech enables us to harnessthe sun's enormous energyresources. The sun supplies Earthwith as much energy every fivedays as all fossil fuel reservescombined. This makes possible anew energy era. Two views on energy dominate the conversation. We propose a third The dominant energy views in the energy debate today A third way: the electrotech view Theclimate view,centredon emissions,policy targets and the moral obligationto fix climate change Theincumbent energy view, centred onfossil fuels, slow change and business-as-usual Thenew electrotech view,centredongrowth and innovation This is a technology revolution in energy Electrotech is technology that revolutionises the supply, connection and demand of electricity SupplyNew ways togenerateelectricity New ways totransportand storeelectricity A century of evolution is converging into a decade of revolution The 2020s mark a great technology convergence This is the age of electrotech It is the latest in a long line of technology shifts Electrotech is the child of digital tech Electrotech is made ofthe same componentsas digital tech, andinherits its momentum From burning old sunshine to using it real-time The sun supplies more energy to Earth every 5 days than all fossil fuel reserves Foragers, Farmers, Fossils, Photovoltaics Electrotech enables another 100x leap in energy abundance Chapter 2The rise of electrotech 03 01 02 The ceiling of the possible ishigh above us Electrotech costs have fallenfast Growth has been exponential Electrotech costs have been fallingfor decades on establishedlearning curves of around 20% forevery doubling in deployment. Theynow challenge fossil fuels on cost,with Dolphin EVs retailing in Chinabelow $10,000 and solar-plus-storage in India at $40 per MWh.As a result, capital is shifting, andtwo-thirds of energy expenditure isgoing into electrotech. Key electrotech technologies haveenjoyed exponential growth. Wesee this for generation (solar andwind), connections (batteries andsoftware) and usage (EV and heatpumps). Change is led by China,and is now cascading into theemerging markets. ASEAN, forexample, leapfrogged the US inelectrification in 2023. We already know how to get solarand wind to 70-80% of generationat a cost comparable with fossilfuels and how to electrify around75% of end demand. So we canmore than triple renewables andelectrification. The two vectors of the energy transition Renewables replace fossil electricity; e