2026年至今：万物齐发，无处不在……

February 2026 Jim ReidHead of Global Economics & Thematic Research Henry AllenMacroStrategist Galina PozdnyakovaResearch Analyst Rajsekhar Bhattacharyya Table ofContentPageIntroductory slides02Global value continued to perform in January13Midterms and politics29Bonds, NIIPs, funding and the Fed36 Introductoryslides We will have to get used to a new era of what’s important… Although so fargeopolitics has been more noise than price action… Even AI’s surge in the headlines took a dip in January as geopolitics took over. Butaround 4% of all Bloomberg stories mention AI, ten times the number for geopolitics.When you consider all the themes we talk about in global financial markets, that’s stillan impressive number. The climb in precious metals has been extraordinary… I’ve long been a gold bug givenmy belief that the fiat money regime since Bretton Woods’ collapse in 1971 isinherently inflationary. However, the recent run-up has been much more than this andlikely contains a speculative element. Perhaps the month-end sell-off hints at this… Gold prices in real terms ($/oz) Even if speculation has dominated recent trading, structural demand remains. As an example,central banks have been increasing their gold reserves at the expense of currencies,particularly the dollar. Their holdings remain way off the highs. This doesn’t explain the hugerecent surge in the price, but it does highlight a continued source of demand. Silver only passed its real price in 1790 in recent weeks and then shot up before crashing inthe last couple of days… the only historical precedent is in 1980. With the latest falls, it is nowback to its real price in 1790 again. Thus, 235 years where the real return has been zero. So becareful in trying to assess what long-term returns should be… The volume of Silver ETFs has been extraordinary relative to history. Thislooks like pure speculation... ISHARES Silver Trust: Turnover-Trade value Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 in the 21st century but over the long run struggles tocompete with dividend-paying equities. Even as a gold bug, I acknowledge that since fiatmoney emerged in 1971, the S&P 500 has outperformed gold. The start of the 21stcenturywas an extremerelativelow for gold demand and prices. Log scale of S&P 500 (Total Return) / Gold Top 25 holders of gold by economy in order of holding size from previous slide but with valueof this as a % of GDP (left) and total government debt (right). Russia, Switzerland, Uzbekistanand Kazakhstan stand out on this latter measure. Meanwhile, for all the surge in interest in recent years, Bitcoin is ‘only’ around 20%above levels from just under 5 years ago.... Globalvalue continued to perform in January 2025 was a good year for global equities, especially EM, with the US around thebottom quartile. So far in 2026 the pattern seems to be repeating itself... 2025 global equity returns saw a strong correlation with starting valuations. It’s earlydays, but value seems to have been a good guide to global equity returns in January2026 as well… Bloomberg large/mid-cap country stock market indices, 2025 total return in USD vs. 12mfwdPE estimates atthe end of 2024 (left) & Bloomberg large/mid-cap country stock market indices, 2026 YTD return in USD vs.12mfwdPE estimates at the start of 2026 (right) Valuations matter: Remember from my long-term study last year (here), global equity returnsare overwhelmingly higher when valuations are low than when high. Dividend yield is thelongest time series here… The US has been the exception in the last decade, but that’s not thenorm… Valuations matter: Global equity returns overwhelmingly higher whenstarting P/E and CAPE ratio is low… Again, the US has been the exceptionnot the norm over the last decade… There has been a decent sized rotation in the US since the end of October. TheS&P 500 has been broadly flat but 9 of 11 top level sectors are higher. However,the weight of tech has held the market back. Many other global markets are upstrongly over this period. S&P Sectors return since October 29, 2025 Even though there’s been a notable rotation away from tech and into defensivesover the last 3 months, defensive US stocks are still around the cheapestthey’ve been on a relative basis if we zoom out..... The drawdown in a lot of tech/AI stocks and related assets (e.g. crypto) hasbeen pretty severe. It's been impressive–given some of their weights in theindex–that the S&P 500 is only just below its all-time highs. Capitalism can be brutal and a reminder of how trends and fashions can change quickly inboth directions.Peletonwent from a $5.5bn to $49bn market cap company in 10 months butsoon corrected and is now worth $2.3bn. Zoom went from $20bn to $162bn and back to$28bn mkt cap over a similar period... Worth remembering in an AI winners andlosersworld... Capitalism can be brutal: Part 2. Novo Nordisk was briefly Europe’s largestcompany... However, competition and R&D setbacks in a fast-evolvingmarket me