第四季度收益观察：增长持续扩大

Asset Allocation Q4 Earnings Takes: A SustainedBroadening In Growth Binky Chadha Chief Strategist+1-212-250-4776 nThe last earnings season had marked the first time in over 2 years that growthnot only strengthened to a solid 14% but also broadened meaningfullybeyond mega-cap growth (MCG1) & Tech (Q3 Earnings Takes: Stronger andBroader, Nov 4 2025). The Q4 earnings season has continued the trend. Parag ThatteStrategist+1-212-250-6605 Karthik PrabhuStrategist+1-212-250-1246 nOverall earnings growth nudged higher to a 4-year high (14.5%), i.e., thehighest since the reopening boom, and the number of sectors with positivegrowth rose again to 8 out of 11, up from 6 in Q3. Nearly half the companiesgrew at double-digit rates, with the median growth rate close to 10%, also thehighest in 4 years. Notably, the broadening in earnings has not been at theexpense of MCG & Tech which grew at 28% you, handily leading the pack,while growth for the rest sustained just under 7%. Dag WorkayehuStrategist+1-212-250-4771 nLooking ahead, consensus estimates for Q1 were cut modestly, but by lessthan is historically typical for the next quarter’s estimates. 2026 consensuswent up, largely on the back of upgrades for MCG & Tech. nThe market is down slightly through this earnings season, largely as Tech soldoff even as other sectors and the average stock rallied handily amidst theongoing rotation that began in late October. As we wrote last week, Tech hitthe bottom of its decade-long outperformance channel versus the rest of theS&P 500 before bouncing on Friday (Tech Bounces Off The Bottom Of TheChannel, Feb 6 2026). The Q3 earnings season had marked the first time in over 2 years that growth notonly strengthened to a solid 14% but also broadened meaningfully beyond mega-cap growth (MCG) & Tech (Q3 Earnings Takes: Stronger and Broader, Nov 4 2025).Now, well into the Q4 earnings season, earnings growth has continued to pick upas well as broaden: nBeats remain well above average.The proportion of companies beating onearnings (81% vs historical average of 74%) and the size of the aggregatebeat (6.5% vs 4.9% historically) both declined modestly in Q4 but remainedwell above their historical averages. The earnings beat by the mediancompany, however, fell back to its historical average (3.5%) after stayingwell above for 3 years. Sales beats, both in terms of breadth and size, inched 1MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, V, MA, NVDA, NFLX, ADBE & TSLA Asset Allocation lower from the very elevated levels of the past 2 quarters, but continue to bewell above average. Margin beats also slowed slightly but remained aboveaverage. nModest pickup in earnings growth takes it to the highest in 4 years (from14.2% you in Q3 to 14.5% in Q4).Earnings growth you picked up slightlyfrom Q3 to Q4 but by enough to take it to the highest since the pandemicreopening boom in 2021. Notably, the hurdle for the quarter was quite high,as growth had been strong in Q4 of 2024 (13.5%). For the median company,growth is on track to hit almost 10%, also the highest in 4 years.Sequentially, Q4 followed two quarters which had seen the level of earningsrise by an outsized 11% (adjusted for seasonality, not annualized), taking itfrom the bottom of its 3-year trend channel (10.6% ar, +/-4% range), to thetop. Earnings grew more slowly from Q3 to Q4 but at a still respectable 1.8%(qoq sa), moving along the top of the channel. nEarnings continue to broaden on a range of metrics.Growth continues to broaden across sectors.8 of the 11 sectors nin the S&P 500 have reported positive year-on-year earnings growthin Q4 2025, up from 6 in Q3 and just 2 in Q2. nMega-cap Growth (MCG) & Tech growth still very strong (28%).The broadening of growth is not happening at the expense of MCG& Tech which again led with very strong growth (29% in Q3 to 28%inQ4),the 10th straight quarter above 25%.There are nocomparable periods of such sustained steady high growth rates forthe group. In the 2H of the 1990s, their growth was arguablystronger but more volatile and of course off a much smaller base. nGrowth outside of MCG & Tech is solid (6.4%).Earnings growth forthe S&P 500 outside MCG & Tech went largely sideways (6.7% in Q3to 6.4% in Q4), near a 3-year high. The standout this quarter wasMaterials (8% to 30%) which posted the highest growth acrosssectors as earnings rose sharply on rising commodity prices.Growth for the Financials slowed from the very high levels in Q3 butremained strong (26% to 14%). Utilities (8% to 9%) saw growthagain in the high single digits while growth for Industrial Cyclicals,Real Estate, Consumer Defensives and Energy were in the lowsingle digits. The three sectors which had continued negativegrowth were Consumer Cyclicals (-10% to -7%), Telecom (-4.5% to-4.4%) and Healthcare (-0.8% to -2.4%). nNearly half the companies are reporting double-digit growth.Theproportion of S&P 500 companies reporting double-digit growthhas risen from 40% in Q2 to 45% in Q3 and now 48% i