银行正推动净值增长在起步销售中；第四季度收益可能在增长股修正中有所缓解

sales; 4Q earnings could easeon growth stock correction Banca fuellingNBV growth in jumpstart sales; 4Qearnings could ease on growth stock corrections We maintain Ping An as oneof our sector top picks, and lift TP to HK$90 based onSOTP,by 1) rolling forward to FY26E forecasts, and 2) fine-tuning net earnings andNBV growth in FY25-27E. On a like-for-like basis, we estimate 12% YoY growth ofGroup OPAT in FY25E to RMB136bn,which implies~46% YoY increase in 4Q25(vs.3Q25: +15.2%). The 4Q acceleration could be driven by 1) robust L&H OPATgrowth supported with improvingoperating variance and investment service result;2) asset management on a YoY decline of impairment lossthanks tocapital marketrecovery; and 3) P&C’s robust underwriting profit. For Group NPAT, we forecast a5.1% YoY increase in FY25Eto RMB133bn. That said, non-operating items (i.e.NPAT-OPAT) could drop in 4Qdue to1)weakerequity market performances(i.e.CSI300/SHCOMP:-0.2%/ +2.2% in 4Q25, vs. 3Q: +18%/+13%); 2)an upliftingbondyieldto1.85%as ofyear-end and flattened in 4Q25, which likelyreducedbond fairvalue gains;and 3)revaluation losseson highervalue of H-share convertible bonds. Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price China Insurance Nika MA(852)3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk BancaNBVhiking injumpstart sales; expect FY26E NBV to rise by 18%. PingAn edged on its proprietary bancassurance channels through PABhistorically,and expanded to~19k non-PAB outlets by 3Q25.We thinkbancassurance can be a primary channel benefiting from the migration ofhouseholds’deposits given their low risk appetite and demand for higherreinvestment yields.With total ~200k outlets in China, Ping An could fullyleveragethis channel by enhancing outlet penetration andsalesproductivity.Assuming 20%-30% of theseoutletshavehigh-net-worthclients,the insurerstillhas ample headroom forfurther outlet expansion in our view.We project Weaker 4Q earnings by growth stock corrections; expect robust solvency. Theinsurerincreasedexposure to growth stocks in 3Q25,amidstthebroadersector trend to capture the rising momentum in A-share market. As of 1H25, theallocation to TPL/OCI stockswasat 35%/65% for Ping An,andwe expect theTPL mix to furtherrisebyyear-end amid a shift to PAR products. By 1H25, PingAn’s total equity exposure (incl. listed/non-standard equity investments andLTVs) amounted to 18.3% of total investment assets, which we believe couldfurthergrowin 2H25, given more proactive stock allocation amid supportivepolicies. In 4Q25, CSI A500/HSTECH indices were+2.7%/-14.7%,vs. 3Q25: Source: FactSet Auditor: Ernst & Young Related reports: 1.China Insurance-Easing solvency riskfactors to steer insurance funds into long- Liftour TPto HK$90 from HK$75.The stock is trading at 0.71x FY26E P/GroupEV and 1.01x FY26E P/B.Wederive our HK$90 price target using anSOTPvaluation approach,including 1) 1.32x P/Life EV for Ping An Life; 2) 0.94x P/Bfor Ping AnP&C; 3) 0.6x P/B for PAB; 4) 1.0x P/B for AM and other operations;5) HK$0.8 per share for online businesses based on respective P/B-ROE; and6) 15% conglomerate discount. Our new TP implies 0.9x FY26E P/EV and 1.24xFY26E P/B. We like Ping Anasa sectorpioneerin life insurance reformwith its 2.3Qearnings beat; improving businessqualitywith catalysts across-the-boardworth to expect, 31 Oct, 2025 3.1H25 a mixed bag:NBV beat whileOPAT in line, Aug 28, 2025 4.1Q25 NBV stayed robust lifting L&HOPAT back to positive growth, Apr 28,2025 5.Life OPAT awaits for longer time toturnaround, 24 Mar, 2025 6.Robust 3Q doubled in NBV andearnings growth, 23 Oct, 2024 7.2Q NBV stabilized against a high base;expect to see Group OPAT turnaround, 8.Expect $3.5bn CB dilutive effect to beshort-term, Jul. 17, 2024 Downside risks:1) regulatory tightening on life insurance orfinancialconglomerates;2)heightened equity market volatilities; 3) prolongedlow-interest rateenvironment; 4) Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days afterthe date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial inte