欧洲如何应对其防御准备挑战

Daniel Baigent, Fabian Brandt,Bethan Charnley, Aidan Irwin-Singer,Simon Radford, and Roberto Scaramella ABOUT Milken Institute The Milken Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank focusedon accelerating measurable progress on the path to a meaningful life.With a focus on financial, physical, mental, and environmental health,we bring together the best ideas and innovative resourcing to developblueprints for tackling some of our most critical global issues throughthe lens of what’s pressing now and what’s coming next. ABOUT Oliver Wyman, a Marsh (NYSE: MRSH) business, is a managementconsulting firm driven by deep industry insight, bold innovation,and a collaborative approach that cuts through complexity to helporganizations navigate their most defining transformative moments.Marsh is a global leader in risk, reinsurance and capital, people andinvestments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130countries. With annual revenue of $27 billion and more than 95,000colleagues, Marsh helps build the confidence to thrive through thepower of perspective. REPORT QUALIFICATION/ASSUMPTION AND LIMITING CONDITIONS This report has been produced by Oliver Wyman and the Milken Institute. Neither Oliver Wyman nor the Milken Institute shall have any liability to anythird party in respect of this report or any actions taken or decisions made as a consequence of the results, advice, or recommendations set forth herein.This report should not be quoted in whole or in part in any way connected to a commercial transaction, without the prior written consent of OliverWyman and the Milken Institute. This report does not represent legal advice or investment advice or provide an opinion regarding the fairness of any transaction to any and all parties.The opinions expressed herein are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date hereof. Information furnished by others, upon which allor portions of this report are based, is believed to be reliable but has not been verified. No warranty is given as to the accuracy of such information.Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources Oliver Wyman and the Milken Institute deem to be reliable; however, neitherOliver Wyman nor the Milken Institute make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, and they have accepted theinformation without further verification. No responsibility is taken for changes in market conditions or laws or regulations and no obligation is assumedto revise this report to reflect changes, events, or conditions, which occur subsequent to the date hereof. This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0 International, available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. TABLE OFCONTENTS Foreword: Andrius Kubilius1Executive Summary2Summary of Recommendations5Context8Capacity and Capability Challenges to Achieving Defence Readiness15Effectiveness of National Defence Readiness Responses21Recommendations for Government26Recommendations for Finance37Recommendations for the Defence Industry44Appendix: Methodology52Endnotes53Acknowledgements64 Foreword Andrius KubiliusEuropean Commissionerfor Defence and Space Who would have imagined at the beginning of the decade that Europe would be sending troops to defendGreenland or that a deadly ground war in Ukraine would be entering its fourth year? The spectre of warhas returned to our continent, and the current acceleration of militarisation and uncertainty about thecontinuation of the rules-based order all demand a step change in European defence readiness. Our ability to deter and, if necessary, withstand aggression depends on key defence resources: defenceand space-based capabilities that must be available before a crisis, trained military personnel and armamentsable to be mobilised rapidly, and an industrial base on European soil capable of producing weaponry andinfrastructure at scale, including close to any future frontline. Yet, today, Europe faces serious challengesin terms of both its short- and long-term defence readiness when it comes to its capabilities and resources. This report from the Milken Institute and Oliver Wyman sets out recommendations aimed at strengtheningEuropean collaboration across governments, finance, and industry in an effort to prepare the continentfor anything that lies ahead. Its purpose is to provide rigorous evidence and a set of practical options forpolicymakers and market participants who share the same strategic objective: a strong, defence-ready Europe. The recommendations that have emerged are clear and mutually reinforcing. At their core is a call for thekind of close European cooperation among governments, industry, and finance that will allow higher defencebudgets to translate into real industrial capacity, technological capability, and continental interoperability.We must coordinate readiness portfolios on a pan-European le