拉各斯2025年下半年市场更新

Lagos Market Update provides half year update on the real estate marketperformance of the commercial nerve centre and economic hub ofNigeria. This also include an update on the real estate markets in Abujaand Port Harcourt. LagosMarket UpdateH2 2025 EconomicUpdate H2 2025 marked a period whereNigeria’s economy attempted toconvert reform momentum intodurability. The numbers suggestedprogress; however, the underlyingdynamics revealed an economy stillnegotiating its balance betweenstabilization and growth. Central to this progress was thelong-awaited GDP rebasing exerciseconcluded in mid-2025, whichtransitioned the base year to 2019.This recalibration significantlyreshaped the perception of Nigeria’seconomic structure, revealing a largerand more diversified economy.Nominal GDP was revised upward by41.7% (against the 2019 nominal GDPunder the old 2010 base), reflectingimproved coverage of the informaland services sectors, most notably intransport, financial activities, and realestate. Building on this updated baseline, Q32025 GDP grew by 3.98% in realterms, sustained primarily by aresilient non-oil sector. For the builtenvironment, the results wereparticularly instructive. Real Estateemerged as the third-largest sectorin the rebased economy, contributing13.36% to total real GDP. While its realgrowth moderated slightly to 3.50%quarter-on-quarter, the sector's sheerscale post-rebasing highlights its roleas a critical anchor for nationalwealth. Simultaneously, the Q3 2025: Real estatecontributes 13.36% of Nigeria’sGDP, cementing its role as amajor economic pillar. 13.36% Central Bank’s continued commitmentto market transparency and improvedprice discovery. Following theoperational reforms initiated inmid-2023, the naira consolidated itsgains in the second half of 2025,trading within a managed band ofN1,450 toN1,500 per US dollar. Thisconsolidation of the local currency wasanchored by a significantstrengthening of the nation’s externalreserves. External reserves climbed toa six-year high of $45.45 billion byDecember 2025, providing the CentralBank with the necessary firepower todampen volatility without returning tothe opaque interventionist regimes ofthe past. This build-up in externalreserves was supported by acombination of factors, includingimproved oil receipts and a structuraleasing of foreign exchange demand forpetroleum imports. However, thebroader sector’s output struggled tomeet expectations; average productionof approximately 1.65 mbpd in 2025 fellshort of the 2.1 mbpd budgetbenchmark, contributing to asignificant revenue shortfall. Construction sector outperformed thebroader economy with a real growthrate of 5.57%, contributing 3.80% to thetotal GDP. This activity was primarilydriven by sustained public infrastructurecorridors and increased capitalexpenditure at the sub-national level. One of the most significant fiscaldevelopment was the enactment of theNigeria Tax Act (NTA) 2025, signed intolaw on June 26, 2025 and effectivefrom January 1, 2026. This landmarklegislation represents a comprehensiveoverhaul of the tax system, aiming tobroaden the revenue base andstreamline administration. While the elevated cost of livingcontinued to weigh on households;inflation, a central macroeconomicchallenge of the past two years,moderated through the second half of2025, reinforcing the view that the peakof the price cycle may be behind theeconomy. Headline inflation trendeddownward from 25.3% in June to15.15% by December, supported by theearlier CPI rebasing, persistently tightmonetary conditions with only asymbolic 50-basis point cut inSeptember, bringing the MPR down to27.00%, and a gradual easing in foodprice pressures. The rebasing exercise has underscoredreal estate's elevated structuralimportance, now firmly positioned as amajor GDP pillar alongsideconstruction. With inflation on a cleardownward path, naira stabilityreinforced by record reserves, andfoundational tax reforms in place, themacro environment is laying firmergroundwork for sustained activity in thebuilt environment. For Lagos realestate, these developments signal atransition toward more predictableconditions, though careful navigation offiscal policies and oil-relatedconstraints will be key to translatingnational progress into broader marketresilience. The naira spent much of H2 2025trading within a narrower and morepredictable range, supported by the Policy attention also extended totenancy regulation, as a proposedreform bill gained legislative traction.On the financing front, the launch ofthe MOFI Real Estate InvestmentFund (MREIF) by the federalgovernment, offering long-term loansat 9.75%, alongside progress on thefederal Renewed Hope HousingProgramme, with around 2,000 unitsnearing completion in Ibeju-Lekki,signalled continued public sectorefforts to address housing shortages. availability of formal residential stockcontinues to underpin pricingdynamics, maintaining elevatedaffordability pressures across themarket. Residential