中国农村的移民、增长与减贫：回顾与展望（英）2026

JohnGilesandRenMu Rural-to-urbanmigrationisatransformativeforceineconomicdevelopmentandtheun-precedentedscaleofChina’sexperienceoffersvaluableinsightforothercountries.Wedrawcomparisonswithinternationalfindingsaswereviewempiricalevidenceontheimpactsofmigrationonruralmigrant-sendingcommunities.Webeginbyexamininghowinstitu-tionalfactors,particularlyhouseholdregistrationsystemsandlandtenurepolicies,shapemigrationdecisions.Next,thediscussionturnstomethodologicalchallengesinstudyingmigration,presentslong-termtrends,andreviewstheimpactsofmigrationonruralhouse-holdearnings,consumption,andtheriskoffallingintopoverty.Wethenexploretheglobalphenomenonof“leftbehind” populations,comparingChina’sexperiencewithothercoun-triesregardingtheimpactofmigrationonchildren’swell-being,women’sempowerment,andcareforolderpeople.Throughout,wehighlightthewayChina’sinternalmigrationpatternsbothalignwithanddivergefrominternationalexperiences.Weconcludebyiden-tifyingkeyresearchgaps. JELCodes:I30,J61,O10,O15,O17Keywords:rural-urbanmigration,ruraldevelopment,labormobility,povertyallevia-tion,China. 1.Introduction Rural-to-urbanmigrationhasbeenaprominentfeatureofeconomicgrowthinde-velopingcountries(HendersonandTurner2020),including China, where ithas con-tributedsignificantlytoaggregateincomegrowthandproductivitygains(BosworthandCollins2008;TombeandZhu2019). EmpiricalevidencefromChinaoverthelastthreedecadeshighlightstheimportanceoftherural-urbanproductivitydivide,insti- tutionalconstraints,andlocalcontextsinshapingmigrationdecisionsandimpactsattheindividualandhouseholdlevels.China’sexperiencealsodemonstratesthatthepar-ticipationinandbenefitsfromrural-to-urbanmigrationarenotinclusive,withvaryingmigrationratesandheterogenousimpactsacrossdemographicgroups.WhileChina’sscaleofinternalmigrationovera30-yearperiodisunprecedented, manyofthechallengesandopportunitiesbroughtaboutbymigrationaresharedbyotherdevelopingcountries.Thedynamicsofrural-to-urbanmigrationinChinaandtheirpotentialvalueforinformingothermigrationexperiencesunderscoretheneedforacomprehensiveanalysisofmigrationinChinawithaninternationalperspective.ThispaperaimstoaddressthisneedbyexaminingaspectsofChina’srural-to-urbanmigration,fromitsinstitutionalbackgroundstoitssocioeconomicconsequencesonruralcommunities,whiledrawingparallelswithinternationalexperiences.Inamechanicalsense,migrationimproveslaborproductivitybyreducingthetime farmersspendworkinginlow-returnagriculture.1Aquestionremains,however,astowhetherincreasedagriculturalproductivityduetomigrationleadstopovertyreduc-tion,orifimprovedmigrationopportunitiesandremittancesareresponsibleforin-creasedconsumptionandreducedpovertyamongruralhouseholds.Identifyinghowincreasesinrural-to-urbanmigrationinfluencehouseholdeconomiccircumstancesrequiresunpackingcausalityfromtwosimultaneousandpotentiallymutuallyrein-forcingchanges:increasedagriculturalproductivityandincreasedlabormobility.Re-latedly,whenestimatinghousehold-levelmigrationimpacts,itisessentialtoaccountformigrationselection,asmigrantsarenotarandomsampleoftheoriginpopulation(Lee1966).Separatingtheeffectsofmigrationitselffromtheeffectsofmigrantchar-acteristicsisarecurringempiricalchallengediscussedinthispaper.Section2highlightstwoimportantinstitutionalfeaturesshapingruraltourban migrationinChina:theresidentialregistration(Hukou)systemandthelandtenuresystem.Althoughtheseinstitutionshaveevolvedconsiderablyoverthelast40years,theycontinuetoinfluencemigrationpatterns,migrantduration,andthedemographiccompositionofmigrants.ThepatternsandthenatureofparticipationinmigrantworkdiscussedinSection3areimportantforunderstandingthebenefitsofrural-urbanmi-grationasameansofpovertyalleviationinChina.Significantgendergapsexistinmigrantparticipationacrosstheagedistribution,withmenworkingasmigrantsathigherratesthanwomen,thoughthisgaphasclosedovertime.Migrantsaregettingolder,andtheiraveragenumberofworkingdayshasbeenincreasing.Whilelessafflu-entruralhouseholdstendtoparticipatemoreinmigrantlabormarketsthanaffluenthouseholds,recentresearchsuggeststhatpoorer,credit-constrainedhouseholdsmaynotbenefitasfullyfrommigrantopportunitiesasmiddle-incomehouseholds(Duetal.2005;deBrauwandGiles2018).Section4reviewsevidenceontheeffectsofmigrationonhouseholdearnings,con- sumption,andpovertyalleviation.OnecrediblestudybasedondatafromChina’spoorcountiesfindshouseholdincomepercapitaincreasesfrom8.5to13.1percentafter sendingamigrant(Duetal.2005).Researchalsosuggeststhatincreasedmigrationfromvillagesalsocontributedtoaverageincreasesinhouseholdconsumptionwithinvillages,includingthosewithoutamigranthouseholdmember.Onestudyattributes65percentoftheconsumptiongrowthexperiencedbyapanelofhouseholdsfromvil-lagessurveyedfrom1988to2002toincreasesinruraltourbanmigration(deBrauwandGiles2018).Theopportunitytodiversifyhouseholdearningsthroughmigrantworklowersthe riskoffallingintopoverty,evenforhouseholdsnotcurrentlyengagedinmigrantwork.Theoptiontofindmigrantworkanddiversifyincomesourcesafterexperiencingagri-culturalshocksaffectsprecautiona