赤道几内亚共和国：工作人员监督方案下的第三次审查新闻稿；员工报告（英）

THIRD REVIEW UNDER THESTAFF-MONITORED January2026 In the context of theThird Review under theStaff-Monitored Program, the following Monitored Program (SMP) with Equatorial Guinea on December 16, 2025. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s information,following discussions that ended onNovember12, 2025,with the officialsofRepublic of Equatorial Guineaon economic developments and policies.Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00 per printed copyInternational Monetary Fund IMF Management Approves the Third Review of the StaffMonitored Program with Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea’s economic activity is estimated to have contracted by 6.4 percent in 2025on the back of a large fall in hydrocarbon production, following small positive overall growth in2024. The economy is expected to slightly shrink in the medium term as hydrocarbon The authorities maintained gains from the substantial 2024 fiscal adjustment in the first half of2025, in line with the objective of a non-hydrocarbon primary balance of -17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025 as a whole. This fiscal stance is expected to have resulted in an the projected decline in hydrocarbon revenues and to restore external balance in the medium The authorities have implemented substantial reforms over the past year in the context of theSMP. Fiscal policy in 2025 was in line with their plans to stabilize the public debt dynamicsand restore external balance. It was underpinned by impactful structural fiscal measures to The authorities’ policies allowed them to meet all of the SMP’s end-June 2025 quantitativeconditionality as well as two of the four end-September 2025 program structural benchmarks.In addition, they approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives, meeting an end- REPUBLIC OFEQUATORIAL GUINEA THIRD REVIEW UNDER THE STAFF MONITORED PROGRAM December 18, 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context.The return to a secular decline in hydrocarbon production after a brief respiteduring the 2022 energy boom is again straining fiscal and external accounts. Boostingnon-hydrocarbon growth is key to delivering a diversified, inclusive and balancedeconomy. Fund Management approved a 12-month extension of the Staff Monitored Program performance.The authorities have implemented most of the agreed programmeasures to date. In 2025, they met all end-June quantitative and indicative targets,demonstrating their commitment to fiscal consolidation and enhanced social spending.They also met two out of four structural benchmarks (SBs) due by end-September and Outlook and Risks.The economy is expected to shrink slightly in the medium term ashydrocarbon production declines. The authorities aim to implement sufficient fiscaladjustment to maintain public debt below 50 percent of GDP and restore external Discussions took place in Malaboduring November 4–12, 2025.The staff team comprised Mr. Ricka (head), Ms. Reyes,Ms. Rhouzlane (all AFR), Mr. Rozhkov (FAD), Ms. Navarra (SPR),Ms. Shi (Resident Representative) and Mr. Miko Nzang (localeconomist). The mission held discussions with Minister ofFinance, Planning, and Economic Development, Ivan Bacale EbeMolina; Delegate Minister of Hydrocarbons and MineDevelopment, Domingo Mba Esono; Delegate Minister ofTreasury and State Heritage, Milagrosa Obono Angue; Advisor to Approved ByStéphane Roudet (AFR) and TokhirMirzoev (SPR) CONTENTS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS _______________________________________________________________________5 OUTLOOK AND RISKS ___________________________________________________________________________6 POLICY DISCUSSIONS ___________________________________________________________________________7 A. Safeguarding Fiscal Sustainability ______________________________________________________________8B. Strengthening Fiscal Institutions ______________________________________________________________10C. Improving Social Outcomes ___________________________________________________________________11D. Strengthening Governance and Transparency ________________________________________________11 PROGRAM PERFORMANCE ___________________________________________________________________13 STAFF APPRAISAL _____________________________________________________________________________14 BOX 1. Governance and Transparency in the Hydrocarbon Sector ____________________________________12 FIGURES 1. Real Gross Domestic Production, 2005–24 _____________________________________________________42. Hyd