新技术是如何传播的？

WIPR2026 Working Paper91 HowDoNewTechnologiesDiffuse? Carsten Fink1 Maria de las Mercedes Menéndez Julio Raffo3 Abstract Technology diffusion is central to economic development. This paper examines diffusion patterns for 31technologies for 139 countries over two centuries, extending existing databases to include recent digitaltechnologies and renewable energy technologies. Using cross-country panel regressions, we find that whileadoption lags have declined from 50 years (pre-1950) to 15 years (post-2000), adoption intensity in Keywords: technology diffusion, digital technologies, adoption lag, intensity of use JEL codes: O33, O47, O57 Acknowledgement: The authors gratefully acknowledge Diego Comin (Harvard University) forinvaluable comments and suggestions. We also thank Fabiana Visentin, Ernest Miguelez, MichelePezzoni, and WIPO colleagues for their helpful feedback during the Innovation Economy Section 1. Introduction Over the past two centuries, humanity has experienced an unprecedented improvement inliving standards. Since the Industrial Revolution began more than two hundred years ago,global per capita income has increased more than tenfold. Life expectancy has nearly These remarkable gains reflect the power of innovation and technological progress. At thecore of this advancement is creative destruction—the mechanism through which successivewaves of innovation replace older technologies and business models, driving long run Yet the mere invention of new technologies tells only part of the story. Creating innovativesolutions does not automatically translate into economic growth or societal benefits. Fornew technologies to fulfil their potential, they must be adopted and effectively used by firms Technology diffusion faces several challenges that can slow or prevent the spread ofbeneficialinnovations.Users often need to acquire new skills to operate unfamiliartechnologies effectively. Breakthrough technologies from the internal combustion engine Thearrival of breakthrough technologies typically spurs waves of complementaryinnovations.These organizational and business model innovations often prove asimportant as the original technological advance. New ways of organizing work, serving communication. It created entirely new forms of commerce, entertainment and social Multiple factors shape diffusion outcomes, including available skills, competitive dynamics,access to finance, and technical standards and regulations. These factors help explain whytechnologiesdo not diffuse seamlessly across economies.These uneven patterns This paper seeks to shed some light on the technology diffusion process by examining howrapidly and extensively various technologies have spread across the globe, highlightinghow diffusion patterns have changed throughout history. Building primarily onComin and Consistent with the previous literature, we find that the average estimated adoption lag is41 years. On average, the intensity of adoption in developing economies is about half (53%)that of advanced economies. We also document substantial heterogeneity across countries The paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, we review background literature ontechnology diffusion, focusing on conceptualization, and going through how technology 2. Background literature 2.1 Technology diffusion conceptualization Technology diffusion, the process by which innovations spread from inventors to end users,shapes economic growth, comparative advantage, and societal transformation. Yet despiteits importance, this multifaceted process remains challenging to analyze due to its multi- Thisprocess represents what Schumpeter identified as the third critical stage oftechnological progress, after invention and innovation, where economic and social benefitsmaterializethrough widespread adoption(Jaffe,2015).Consequently,technological In this paper, technology diffusion refers to the broader spread of new technology acrossfirms, industries, and economies as more users adopt it over time. Diffusion typically followsa recognizable path. Early adopters with greater technical expertise or appetite for risk lead While definitions vary across disciplines, this working conception aligns with establishedscholarship viewing diffusion as a dynamic, time-dependent process involving the transferof information, knowledge, and innovations across heterogeneous societies and markets(Battisti and Stoneman, 2010; Rogers, 1983). Importantly, diffusion operates simultaneously Several critical insights shape the contemporary understanding of diffusion processes. First,diffusion is inherently time-consuming, regardless of the innovation source, type, oracquisition cost (Dosi, 1991; Lechman, 2015). The path from introduction to widespread diffusion depends on multiple interacting factors: the characteristics of both new andincumbent technologies, the structure of adoption incentives, the attributes of potentialadopters,available information,and existing