当税收管理改善时，谁来买单？对佐治亚州大型纳税人办公室的收入、合规和行为反应

Who Pays When Tax Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Jean-Marc Atsebi, Misha Chikviladze, Mitali Das, ElgujaLoliashvili, and Mona Wang WP/26/31 2026FEB IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Who Pays When Tax Administration Improves? Prepared byJean-Marc Atsebi, Misha Chikviladze, Mitali Das, Elguja Loliashvili, and Mona Wang* Authorized for distribution byNikolay Gueorguiev IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:In 2021, the Republic of Georgia established a Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) to strengthen taxadministration and improve compliance among firms that contribute a disproportionate share of revenue. Thispaper draws on that quasi-experiment to estimate the causal impact of intensive oversight, with no change in taxrates, on taxpayer behavior and revenue collection using administrative data from 2017–2024. Our study exploits RECOMMENDED CITATION:Atsebi, J.,Chikviladze, M., Das, M., Loliashvili, E., Wang, M.(2026).Who PaysWhen Tax Administration Improves? Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses to Georgia’s Large WORKING PAPERS Who Pays When Tax Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses Prepared byJean-Marc Atsebi, Misha Chikviladze, Mitali Das, ElgujaLoliashvili, and Mona Wang Contents I.Introduction..................................................................................................................................................3 A.Tax System and Revenue Administration in Georgia..............................................................................5B.Dismantling and Re-establishing the LTO...............................................................................................5C.Design and Functions of the LTO in Georgia..........................................................................................6 A.Data.........................................................................................................................................................7B.Sample Restrictions.................................................................................................................................7C.Stylized Characteristics of LTO and Non-LTO Firms..............................................................................8D.Empirical Strategy...................................................................................................................................9 A.Impact on Tax Revenues of the First LTO Cohort.................................................................................11B.Validating the Causal Relationship........................................................................................................13C.The Role of Weighting...........................................................................................................................13D.Anticipation and Avoidance Effects.......................................................................................................13E.Impact on Tax Revenues of the Combined First and Second LTO Cohorts.........................................14F.Behavioral Responses to Changes in LTO Selection Criteria...............................................................16 A.Conceptual Framework.........................................................................................................................19B.Empirical Evidence on Enforcement and Compliance...........................................................................19C.Enforcement Targeting..........................................................................................................................20D.Sectoral Impacts....................................................................................................................................21 A.Appendix Figures...................................................................................................................................23B.Appendix Tables....................................................................................................................................28 References.........................................................................................................................................................40 TABLES 1. Percentage of Net Revenue Administered under LTO in Relation to Total Net Revenue.................................32. Threshold Criteria for Large Taxpayer Designation, 2021 vs. 2024..................................................................63. Baseline Results. LTO’s First Cohort Assignment Effect on Tax Assessments..............................................124. Baseline Results. LTO’s First and Second Cohort Assignment Effect on Tax Assessments.........................155. Baseline Results. LTO’s First and Second Cohort Assignment Effect on Tax Assessments Over Time I.