莫桑比克共和国：若干问题

REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE SELECTED ISSUES February 2026 This paperontheRepublic of Mozambiquewas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund REPUBLIC OF SELECTED ISSUES January 28, 2026 Approved ByAfrican Department Prepared By Can Sever(AFR) CONTENTS GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICIES PRIORITIES_________________________________2 A.Introduction__________________________________________________________________________2B.Growth Performance_________________________________________________________________3C.Job Creation__________________________________________________________________________5D.Structural Transformation and Diversification_________________________________________6E.Productivity in Agriculture_____________________________________________________________7F. Informality____________________________________________________________________________8G.Physical Infrastructure and Human Capital____________________________________________8H.Credit to the Private Sector_________________________________________________________10I.Governance__________________________________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1.EconomicGrowth andPoverty________________________________________________________42.The Urgent Need for a Job-Intensive Growth Model__________________________________63.Structural Transformation and Diversification_________________________________________74.Agriculture Productivity_______________________________________________________________85.Development Indicators_______________________________________________________________96.Investment in Physical Infrastructure and Social Spending__________________________107.Credit to the Private Sector_________________________________________________________11 GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICY PRIORITIES Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016withtwo-thirds ofthepopulationbelow thepoverty line.While over half a millionyoung people enter thejobmarketannually,job creation remainsweak,as structural transformation has favored extractiveindustries(in particular,capital-intensive LNGprojects)over manufacturing. Agriculture, employing three-quarters ofthepopulation, suffers from low A.Introduction 1.Mozambique stands at a critical juncture in its development trajectory. After a decadeand a half of robust growth averaging nearly 8 percent annually, the economy has experienced asharp slowdown since 2016, compounded by structural vulnerabilities and governance challenges. 2.The paper is organized as follows.The analysis begins with SectionB, which reviewsMozambique’s growth performance, highlighting the post-2016 stagnation and itsrepercussions onpoverty reduction. SectionCunderscores the urgent need forcreating jobs, given the country’s youngand rapidly expanding population. SectionDexplores structural transformation and diversification,focusing on the dominance of extractives and the decline of manufacturing. SectionEassessesproductivity in agriculture—a sector central to poverty alleviation yet constrained by structural B.GrowthPerformance 3.Mozambique’s economic performance has weakenedmarkedlysince 2016,followingthehidden debt scandalthat triggered a prolonged slowdown(Figure 1).2Between 2000 and2015, real GDP grew at arobust average of7.9 percentper year,wellabove theSub-Saharan Africanaverage(Figure 1,top-left).During2016-2024, however,average annualgrowthplungedto 2.9percent.3The decelerationwas broad-based,withservicesaccounting for half of the decline(Figure 1,top-right).Aspopulation growth remainedbroadlysimilaracrosstheseperiods(Figure 1, middle-left), The deceleration was broad-based, with services accounting Mozambique’s economic performance has weakened C.JobCreation 4.Mozambiquefaces an urgent challenge to create sufficient employment opportunitiesfor its rapidly growing population.Unlikemany countriesgrappling withaging populationsglobally, Mozambique’s population is young and booming:the median ageisabout17years,fertilityrates remain high at roughly5children per woman, and nearly45 percent ofthepopulationisunder 5.Currentestimatesby IMF staffsuggestthat Mozambique will need tocreatearound0.55million new jobs annually by 2030to employ thenew entrants to the workforce, withthedemandcontinuing torise overthe next two decades(Figure 2, left).Withoutadequatejobcreation,poverty and food insecurity could worsen, heightening risksof social tensions.Theweaklink between growth and employment further compounds this challenge:Mozambique generatedonly one-fourth as many jobs per unit of per capita GDP growth as emerging markets outside Sub-Saharan Africa.Within sub-Saharan Africa,the job creat