万斯在亚美尼亚——埃里温的顺风？

Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus Vance in Armenia–A Tailwind for As the first U.S. Vice President,JD Vance visits Armenia–TRIPP, defensecooperation, and new momentum in the peace process. Florian Binder,Marlon Husmann, Jakob Wöllenstein For the first time, a U.S. Vice President visited Armenia—arriving not only with investment pledges, butwith a broader geopolitical offer. TRIPP, nuclear cooperation, and new arms agreements signal aqualitative deepening of relations between Washingtonand Yerevan. For Prime Minister Pashinyan, thisprovides momentum in an election year; for Russia and Iran, it marks a further shift in the regional AFirst with Strategic Implications TRIPP as a Geopolitical Lever On February 9, 2026, a U.S. Vice President visitedthe Republic of Armenia for the first time. JDVance’s visit to Yerevan not only marks asymbolic milestone in bilateral relations but alsocomes at a time of profound geopolitical shifts inthe South Caucasus. The focus was on the As early as January 2026, Armenia and the UnitedStates presented the TRIPP Implementation Framework (TIF).1TRIPP envisions a long-term–multi-decade–majority stake (74 percent) byAmerican actors in key infrastructure inArmenia’s Syunik province. As a “neutral third The project is based on the Washington Agreement signed in August 2025.2 ForAzerbaijan, TRIPP offers a direct connection to itsownexclaveNakhichevanand, prospectively, toTürkiye. For Washington, the project is alsomotivated by economic and raw materials policyconsiderations: securing critical supply chains–for example for copper or lithium–has ranked The visit took place just months before theparliamentary elections scheduled for June 7,2026, and provided Prime Minister NikolPashinyan with visible international support. Indoing so, the United States underscores itscontinuing and growing claim to play a shaping At the same time, the formal peace treatybetween Yerevan and Baku remains pending.Pashinyan confirmed to Vance his participation in trust between Washington and Yerevan. The aimis to position Armenia as a regional hub for AIand cloud services.7 critically, as it potentially creates parallelstructures to existing multilateral institutions.Armenia’s participation nevertheless signals aclear strategic decision to align more closely with Domestic Dimension: ElectionCampaign and the Question of Tehranin particular had voiced strongreservations about TRIPP in advance. Astrengthened U.S. presence near Iran’s northernborder is perceived there as a strategic challenge.However, it remains questionable to what extentIran currently possesses the political or militaryleverage to substantially influence the project. Vance’s open support for Pashinyan ahead of theelections is likely to have domestic politicalrepercussions in Armenia. Despitesporadic contacts between representatives of theArmenian opposition and actors from the MAGA A particularly sensitive issue remained thesituation of Armenians detained in Azerbaijan inconnection with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.Although Baku released four prisoners in January,it ruled out the transfer of the remainingdetainees. During Vance’s stay, publicdemonstrations took place in whichrepresentatives of civil society and the church Nuclear Cooperation and SecurityPolicy Reorientation A central element of the visit was the signing of aso-called “123 Agreement” on the civilian use of nuclear energy.5The agreement paves the wayfor U.S. technology exports worth up to ninebillion U.S. dollars and could, in the mediumterm, reduce the role of the Russian state corporation Rosatom, which currently operatesthe aging Metsamor nuclear power plant in European Perspective: BetweenApproval and Strategic Questions In addition, the Armenian government confirmedfor the first time the purchase of American V-BATsurveillance drones worth eleven million U.S.dollars–Armenia’s first acquisition of U.S. The European Union explicitly welcomed theagreements. Nevertheless, Vance’s visit and theadvancement of TRIPP mark a visible shift in the At the same time, the European Union remains apartner of growing relevance for Armenia–politically and diplomatically, as well as ineconomic matters and the implementation of anambitious reform agenda. It possesses a broad In the technology sector, Pashinyan welcomedthe export authorization granted to Armenia forNVIDIA chips, which are to be used in a 500- These include “Global Gateway” as a strategicframework for infrastructure and connectivityprojects, substantial bilateral investmentcommitments by individual member states, andcontinuous support for reform processes underthe Eastern Partnership. Addedto this is the maintain visible European influence and supportdiversification. At the same time, Berlin shouldwork to avoid institutional marginalization bypositioning European initiatives as Balancing Act BetweenDiversification and Dependence JD Vance’s visit was not an isolated diplomaticev