阿联酋市场洞察

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES December 2007 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles will be added to the series and updated at regularintervals. The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 38 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) that are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics on the ‘TourMIS’ web platform. More information on ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities - including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics - can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:http://www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a small market, with a population of just 4.3 million, but one which isunusually prosperous (with GDP per head well up to OECD standards) and which has a very high •High international oil prices have boosted regional prosperity in recent years. In 2001-06 the UAEsustained an average growth in real GDP of 8.3% a year. In current dirham or US dollar terms (whichtakes into account the additional income brought by the surge in international oil prices), GDP increasedby 19% a year in 2001-06. Total outbound trips are estimated, roughly, at 4.4 mn in 2006. They increased by an estimated average of18% a year in 2001-06 (and much faster in 2004-06). •Outbound travel expenditure was assessed at US$8.8 bn in 2006. On this basis, the UNWTO ranks the UAE21st in the world. •Europe accounted for about 510,000 (11.6%) of the 4.4 mn outbound trips made in 2006. The leadingEuropean destinations are the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Greece and Turkey.•Europe's market share has been declining. About 70% of trips are to Middle East destinations, 15% to AsiaPacific, 12% to Europe, just 2% to the Americas (trips to the USA fell heavily after 2001), and 1% to Africa. •Careful distinction needs to be made, in terms of the different segments of the market, between UAEnationals (who represent just 20% of the population), 'other Arabs' and Iranians, and professional COUNTRY PROFILE Structure of the United Arab Emirates It is also important to distinguish, in terms of demand, between UAE nationals (often called 'Emiris','Emirians' or 'Emirati'), other Arabs and Iranians, migrant workers, professional expatriates andtransients of many nationalities. Currency •UAE dirham (Dh)€1 = Dh4.64 (2006)•The dirham has been pegged to the US dollar at US$1 = Dh3.6725 since November 1997.•The dirham therefore tended to slip against the euro (and, usually, sterling) in 2001-05, but to rise slightlyin 2006. In 2007, with some minor fluctuations, it has fallen steadily from €1 = Dh4.85 at the beginning ofJanuary to €1 = Dh5.38 at the beginning of December (It averaged €1 = Dh5.01 over the first 11 months ofthe year).•In December 2007 there are persistent rumours that the dirham will soon be revalued, and/or pegged to abasket of currencies instead of to the US dollar. Population •4.5 mn (2007e). The UN Population Division, in its 2006 Revision, put the total population in 2005 at4,105,000, in line with the 2005 Census, growing by 2.9% a year. This includes annual net immigration of14 per thousand population (down from 40 per thousand in 1995-2000). However, these growth andimmigration rates are not compatible with the population increases recently reported by Dubai and Abu Only about 20% of the population are UAE nationals, according to the 2005 Census. Very roughly (recentfigures are not available) 25% are 'other Arabs' and Iranians, 45% are migrant workers employed as •In a country that is mainly desert, 77% of the population is held to be urban. The only cities withpopulations of over a quarter of a million are Dubai (1,272,000 in 2004), Abu Dhabi (578,000), Ash Shariqah(Sharjah, 556,000) and Al 'Ain (in the interior of Abu Dhabi, 369,000). Dubai and Abu Dhabi are growing •The UN puts the fertility rate (the average number of children per female) at 2.3, with an annual birth rateof 16.2 per thousand population and a death rate of 1.4 per thousand. •Life expectancy is 78.7 years – not far short of the Western European and North American averages. Age & Gender •According to the preliminary results of the 2005 Census, 68% of the total population are male and 32%female. The proportions of old people in the population are extremely low. In simpler terms than thetable shown below, 36.5% of the population are 0-24 years old, 60% are 25-54 and 3.5% are over 55. (The •The breakdown of UAE nationals by gender is of course more normal: 50.7% are male and 49.3% female.But because of the large families, high birth rates and low death rates in the last 40 years, the proportionsof children and young people are extremely high, and the proportions of old people are still extr