2009年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2009年第1季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2009Quarterly Report––Q1/2009EUROPEAN TRAVEL COMMISSION ––Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM IN 2009: Quarterly Report (Q1/2009) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2009 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2009: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2009) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided thesource is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full ispermitted for own or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication Email:info@etc-corporate.orgISBN No: 978-92-990050-4-0 This report was compiled and edited by:The Travel Business Partnership Cover: Fort St. Angelo, Vittoriosa, Malta / Leslie Vella Foreword It is now clear that the financial-sector blizzard that struck in the second half of2008 is affecting the global economy.Every single OECD member country,and every single economy in Europe, is expected to suffer a contraction inGDP in 2009. Not many emerging markets, so many of which were booming in A need for more frequent Given the inevitable impact of the economic and financial crisis on businessand consumer confidence, as well as on demand for travel and tourism, theEuropean Travel Commission's (ETC's) Market Intelligence Group (MIG) decidedthat it was important to monitor trends affecting tourism demand on a more This new publication is a prime example of ETC's objective of consolidating itsrole as the authoritative voice of European tourism.ETC's MIG network bringstogether a distinguished team of tourism research professionals drawn from The ability to produce a report such as this is also due to the involvement ofthe MIG's members with other events, partner associations and organisations,such as IPK International and its annual World Travel Monitor Forum in Pisa,the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), European Cities Marketing (ECM),the European Travel & Tourism Action Group (ETAG), the European Tour Just as importantly, the data capture and display platform created specificallyfor ETC in the form of the TourMIS database continues to prove invaluable for News of the swine flu epidemic broke as this report was being finalised.Wewill be monitoring the situation closely and will report back as appropriate. Rob FranklinExecutive Director Executive Summary The decline in demand fortravel and tourism is As we enter the second quarter of 2009, the first signs are becoming visiblethat the global economy's rate of decline may be slowing.Yet significant Travel demand is elastic – that is, it tends to exceed the growth of the overalleconomy in good times, and to contract more severely when the economy falters.This is clearly evident in the pace of travel declines over the past few months. Air passenger demand continues to fall.In the last three weeks of March,demand was 10% lower than a year earlier.And indicators from the Europeanhotel sector confirm this story, as occupancy rates were 10% lower in January So far, only eleven countries in Europe have reported figures for arrivals ornights in the first two months of the year.But of these, only one (Austria)reports an increase. The others all report declines – often in double digits. Leisuretravel will be constrained by job losses and weak consumerconfidence, compounding the huge losses in wealth over the past year.Butthe majority of Europeans still have their jobs and some are benefiting from lowinterest rates reducing their monthly mortgage payments.Most households Business travel will continue to be the hardest-hit sector.Corporate profits willremain weak into 2010, but in addition to the need to cut costs, corporationsare increasingly sensitive to public criticism of companies that have beenbailed out, yet continue to send their staff on what are often seen as 'junkets'. However, low fuel prices, industry price discounts and strong governmentresponses give reason for hope that by the third quarter, we may see business … although there aregrounds for hoping forsome stabilisation in thethird quarter TourismEconomics currently predicts that visits to/arrivals in Europeandestinations will decline by 3.8% this year.The recovery will be modest, itbelieves, with an increase of just 1.7% forecast for 2010 – implying a two-year Economic Trends and Implications First signs of light at theend of the tunnel? As we enter the second quarter of 2009, we are seeing the first signs that theprecipitous decline in global output may be slowing.Worldwide, commodityprices have eased upwards. In the USA, there have been slight improvementsin the housing markets and construction activity, and consumer spending islikely to have grown a little in the first quarter.In Asia, Japanese industrialoutputcontinued to fall steeply in February,but manufacturers'forecasts In general, however, output is still falling an