韩国市场洞察

SOUTH KOREA December 2013 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles are added to the series and updated at regular intervals. The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 33 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) who are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics and other indicators. A complete overview of ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities – including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics – can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •South Korea is one of Asia's 'economic tigers', and per capita GDP has been rising rapidly. It is nowaround US$23,000 – comparable to that in Greece and Portugal, but still well short of the US$47,000in Japan and the US$52,000 in the USA, for example. At this level, international travel has become •The economy recovered very quickly from the global financial and economic crisis in 2008-09, butgrowth rates have since remained modest by Asian standards. GDP rose in real terms by 2% in 2012 •After falling by 30% in the wake of the 2008-09 crisis, outbound trips finally set a new record of12.5 mn in 2012. This was an increase of 8% on 2011. Outbound trips have grown by an average of •The record 12.5 mn trips in 2012 were equivalent to one in four of the population – an outbound travelintensity of 26%. This is substantially higher than that in Japan (13%) but is rather low by world •International travel expenditure (excluding transport) fell from a peak of US$22.0 bn in 2008 to justUS$15 bn in 2009, and has since recovered only partially, to US$20.1 bn. UNWTO ranked South Korea14th in the world on this basis in 2007, but 17th in 2009, 26th in 2010, 22nd in 2011 and 21st in 2012. •The great majority of trips are to Asian destinations – the top 12 destinations are all Asian, with theexception of the USA. Europe is still regarded by most people as a 'once in a lifetime' destination andattracts fewer than 1 mn Koreans a year. However, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Turkey and •About 57% of Korean outbound trips are for holidays, 25% for business, 12% for education andtraining, 5% for visits to friends and relatives (VFR) and 2% for other purposes. However, theseshares vary from one destination region and country to another and over time, according to changing •International travel is bound up with Koreans' desire for a well-balanced and healthy life. Astravellers they are more motivated by a concept of 'refresh & invigorate' than by one of 'relax & ECONOMIC PROFILE •The won has generally been appreciating in recent years, with occasional periods of volatility. Duringthe world financial crisis in 2008-09 it went on a roller-coaster ride, falling by roughly a third againstthe US dollar and the Japanese yen before staging a partial recovery in 2009-10. It then resumed itsupwards path, with sharp reversals in May-June 2010 and August-September 2011, and a more •Much of the volatility can be ascribed to the US dollar rather than to the Korean won: accordingly, thewon's exchange rate against the euro and sterling has generally been less erratic than against the •However, the won and the yen are prone to very large fluctuations against each other, with dramaticshort-term effects on tourism flows to and from the two countries. There are also knock-on effects(through diversion effects) on their tourism flows with the rest of the world. The won fell even moresharply against the yen than against the US dollar in 2008-09, and there were sharp declines again in •The South Korean economy is essentially export-led. It took a huge hit during the global financial andeconomic crisis in 2008-09, when foreign trade and industrial production plummeted for a fewmonths, but it recovered quickly. Growth remained very modest, by Asian standards, in 2011-12, andpreliminary figures for the first three quarters of 2013 suggest only a moderate improvement – not •The Korean economy is nevertheless regarded as robust – i.e. relatively 'safe' in a risky worldeconomic environment – with a sound fiscal situation, a low level of public debt and a large surplus onthe current account balance of payments. The country has a well-diversified industrial base,competitive in a range of growth sectors, which should benefit from the recently signed free trade •A weakness is the lack of growth in earnings and high levels of household debt. Private consumptionhas, historically, made a smaller contribution to growth than exports. The country does not look and •The Bank of Korea's business confidence index was close to its long-term average in the first half of2012 – at around 85, on the pessimistic side of neutral (100). It fell sharply in