2021年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2021年第一季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS & PROSPECTSQuarterly report (Q1/2021) A report produced forthe European Travel Commission Copyright © 2021European Travel Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q1/2021) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately andclearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While we encourage dis-tribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link toETC's corporate website,referring The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of Data sources: This report includes data from theTourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,ACI Europe,ForwardKeys,Sojern,UNWTO, andTransparent. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided byTourismEconomicsand are for interpretation by users according to their needs. Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61,1000 Brussels, Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@visiteurope.comISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group. Cover:San Sebastian church tower in Antequera, Malaga Province, Andalusia, Spain Image ID:1491522236Copyright:RudiErnst FOREWORD As theCovid-19 vaccine became available, a well-orchestrated and efficient inoculation schemeacross Europe was expected. However, the EU’s vaccination campaign was challenged by slow vaccineapproval processes, pharmaceutical production delays, distribution challenges and fears over sideeffects with many EU nations temporarily halting the use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. All theseissues have prolonged and jeopardised nations’ efforts to control the pandemic. At the time of writ- Despite the many issues faced so far, immunisation efforts inEurope have ramped up. The dosesdelivered to the EU have substantially increased. The bloc is confident that the vaccination deliverywill catch up over the next quarter and will bring down Covid-19 cases, allowing for a safe and sus- With the summer season around the corner and a mounting pent-up demand, it is crucial that Euro-pean nations work together on the implementation of a roadmap to restore a sector that very muchrelies on people’s freedom to travel. To this end, the series of joint recommendations established bytheEuropean Tourism Manifesto Allianceare a way towards restoring European travel in a safe and The most recent edition of the European TourismTrends & Prospects report continues to monitorthe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the travel and tourism sector and the wider economic envi-ronment. TheSpecial Featureof this latest edition addresses the risks of a failed reopening this sum- Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit) TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD......................................................................................................................................4TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................................................5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................................61. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2020...............................................................................92. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2021.............................................................................113. GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY...............................................................................154. RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.......................................................................................16AIR TRANSPORT.............................................................................................................................16ACCOMMODATION........................................................................................................................205. SPECIAL FEATURE: LOST SUMMER SCENARIO–DOMESTIC TRAVEL OPPORTUNITY.......22 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVER A YEAR INTO THEPANDEMIC: NOT GREAT, NOT TERRIBLE Lockdowns have persisted into 2021 as Covid-19 infection rates surge in some countries despite thevaccination rollout. Prospects for the summer season are mixed. While Europe works to overcomehurdles relating to vaccine side effects and supply shortages,inoculationprogrammes are still ex- Data to January indicates an 85% plunge in international tourist arrivals to Europe1, and travel de- mand is now expected to remain below its pre-pandemictrajectory until 20242. On the other hand,domestic travel is leading the way, with volumes projected to reach 2019 levels in 2022. Travellers’ mood is upbeat for summer holidays spurred by the availability of a vaccine, with 56% of Europeanswilling to travel by the end of August3. European destinations continued to see major declines in tourist arrivals during Q1/202