乌克兰战争对欧洲旅游业的初步影响

IMPACT OF UKRAINEWAR ON EUROPEANTOURISM:MACROECONOMIC AND David Goodgerdgoodger@oxfordeconomics.comManaging Director, EMEA Summary impacts on European travel 1.Direct impacts of lost Russian travel with no-fly zones and lingering sanctions including 2.Wider economic impacts of sanctions means ohigher inflation will erode income and expected consumer-lead recovery orising oil costs will lead to higher air fares while longer routes will deter some trips 3.Sentiment could affect long-haul demand–but limited evidence to date Countries reliant on Russian travel will be directly affected Top destinations for Russianvisitors, 2019 Summary impacts on European travel 1.Direct impacts of lost Russian travel with no-fly zones and lingering sanctions including 2.Wider economic impacts of sanctions means ohigher inflation will erode income and expected consumer-lead recovery orising oil costs will lead to higher air fares while longer routes will deter some trips 3.Sentiment could affect long-haul demand–but limited evidence to date Expected post-Omicron bounce has been revised down Inflation pressures have risen but will subside in our baseline But a longer conflict would have more devastating impacts Summary impacts on European travel 1.Direct impacts of lost Russian travel with no-fly zones and lingering sanctions including 2.Wider economic impacts of sanctions means ohigher inflation will erode income and expected consumer-lead recovery orising oil costs will lead to higher air fares while longer routes will deter some trips 3.Sentiment could affect long-haul demand–but limited evidence to date Sentiment effects are a further risk to destinations in Europe Previous adverse eventshave only had a moderateimpact on US travel toWestern Europe as a wholeand have been followed by Affordability has had biggerimpacts–egduringrecessions or currency Travel from other, smallerlong-haul markets can be Recovery is deferred but not derailed Visitor arrivals forecast revision IMPACT OF THE UKRAINE WAR ON EUROPEAN TOURISM UpdateontheTravelSentiment&Destinations'Reputation Reputation more essential than ever to track Source: TRAVELSAT© Sentiment IndexSocial and Reviews Data for a holistic Destination Reputation Tracking ADVANCED SOCIAL LISTENING APPLIED TO DESTINATIONS MAPPING DESTINATIONS’ REPUTATION “AT LARGE” oThe“sentiment”reflectsthestateanddynamicofdestinations’e-reputationasmirroredinglobalwebsocialconversations“atlarge”. oSocialposts,opinions,facts,reviews,promotionsandreactionssharedbymedias,consumers,companies,citizens,travellers,brandsandOfficials. Rating&Reviewsplatforms,influencingthedestinationreputation.o4M+Europe-relatedsocialconversationsincontextoftraveltrackedannually, generating60M+engagements,sharedby750Kuniqueauthorsin150+countries. positivee-reputation is essential to generate favorability towardsdestinationsandtravelbrands,particularlyincrisismanagementcontext. How is the social sentiment curated?Artificial Intelligence with Social Analyst interpretation Some aspects for the sentiment analysis relies on polarityindicators. A post is tagged as positive or negative depending on: Sentimentdriversaredefinedfrominsightsdetectedinallreputationsourcessharingabout the investigated topic associated to the destination.In sentiment analysis,all sources are relevant since they potentially shape the destinationreputation.Eachtrenddetected,beitinformative,promotional,positiveornegative Words / Expressions mentionedHashtags usedEmotions expressedEmoticons used Forewords-Right before Russia invaded Ukraine... Russianslovedtheirs stay in EuropeEuropean Attractions-Rating & Reviews per market In total Travel-related Web Social ConversationsThe Resonance of the Ukraine crisis Polarity of Travel-related Social ConversationsEurope Travel Image hit but showing signs of resilience Europe image more impacted in North America Destination Reputation Impact–The Western/Eastern Gap What Pre/Post Crisis gaps in tonality of conversations linked to destinations? 10 THE SOCIAL SENTIMENT GIVES USSOME GROUNDS OF CAREFUL OPTIMISM The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Who’smost impacted by the endofRussian travel to EU & the UK? Serbia was used as a gateway for Russians to reach Europe-Not anymore Tickets issued for transfers through Serbia originating in Russia made from 24 Feb–2 Mar 2022 vs same period in week before Russian travel to EU & the UK comes to a halt TicketsforinternationalarrivalstoEU and UKfromRussiaissuedbetween22 Oct 2021 and 10 Mar 2022; %of2019levels Most impacted destinations: Cities on the Mediterranean and the Black Sea Internationalarrivalsin EU and UKbetweenJulyandDecember2021; % shareofarrivalsfromRussiacomparedtoallinternationalarrivals What’s the impact onIntra-European travel? Demand for Intra-EU & UK international travel slows down TicketsforinternationalarrivalstoEU and UKfromEU and UKissuedbetween22 Oct 2021 and 10 Mar 2022; %of2019levels B