多背景儿童贫困的长期结果：来自印度尼西亚长期小组数据的证据（英）

EVIDENCE FROM LONG PANEL DATA FROM INDONESIA Jiaying Chen, Rhea Molato-Gayares, Albert F. Park, and Donnie-Paul Tan ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES Long-Term Outcomes of Multi-Context Childhood Poverty:Evidence from Long Panel Data from Indonesia Jiaying Chen (chenjiaying@ruc.edu.cn) is an associateprofessor at Renmin University of China. Donnie-PaulTan (dctan.consultant@adb.org) is a consultant,Rhea Molato-Gayares (rmolato@adb.org) is aneconomics officer, and Albert F. Park (afpark@adb.org)is the chief economist and director general of theEconomic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank. Jiaying Chen, Rhea Molato-Gayares,Albert F. Park, and Donnie-Paul Tan No. 833 | January 2026 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS260003-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS260003-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT Which poverty context matters for long-term outcomes—family or community, economicor social? We construct a measure of poverty along these dimensions and analyzeindividual-level longitudinal data spanning 21 years in Indonesia to examine the long-termoutcomes associated with different types of deprivation experienced in childhood. We findthat adverse outcomes in adulthood are associated not only with growing up in a poorfamily but also in a poor community. Family poverty generally has a stronger influencethan community poverty, except for health and life satisfaction, which are shaped moreby the community. We also find that both economic and social domains matter, with theeconomic domain’s influence being stronger. Girls’ education suffers more from exposureto early deprivations, whereas boys’ health is hit harder. Our findings highlight theimportance of accounting for different dimensions of childhood deprivation, and they havestrong policy implications for addressing inequality of opportunity. Keywords:poverty, inequality, neighborhood effects, childhood, gender JEL codes:I32, R23, J11 I.INTRODUCTION Early childhood experiences are crucial to understanding the origins of disparity andintergenerational mobility. Substantial evidence finds that deprivations in early childhoodcan have long-lasting and profound impacts on adult outcomes, including but notrestricted to lifetime income, occupation choice, educational attainment, cognitive skills,preferences, and life satisfaction (Almond and Currie 2011; Gertler et al.2014; Millán etal. 2020; Attanasio, Cattan, and Meghir 2022; Victora et al.2022). However, few studiessystematically examine how different types of deprivation predict adult outcomes usingpanel datasets spanning long periods of time, especially