清晰的轨道，安全的未来：呼吁对空间碎片采取行动（英）

I N S I G H TR E P O R TJ A N U A R Y2 0 2 6 Contents Foreword3Executive summary4Introduction51Understanding the debris landscape61.1Understanding the model81.2Phases and uncertainties91.3Translating population into risk92Economic impact of inaction102.1Understanding the range132.2Possible futures for debris costs152.3Understanding the impact of debris163Forging a path forward173.1Technology183.2Economy193.3Law and policy213.4Diplomacy22Conclusion23Appendix A24Appendix B25B1Mathematical formulation (orbital population model)25B2Core modelling assumptions26B3Modelled clusters and event probabilities27Appendix C28Appendix D30Contributors31Endnotes33 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Jeremy JurgensManaging Director andHead of the Centre for FrontierTechnologies and Innovation,World Economic Forum Mishaal AshemimryManaging Director, Centre forSpace Futures, Saudi Arabia Humanity has never been more interconnected ordata-driven than it is today, and space infrastructuresits at the heart of this transformation. Satellitesenable global connectivity, power our economiesand underpin the digital systems on which wedepend every day. They provide communicationsin disaster zones, deliver tele-education to remotecommunities, monitor environmental changes, trackdisruptions in global supply chains, support farmersin managing their crops and keep our navigationand timing systems running. Over the years, wehave grown heavily reliant on data coming from orthrough the satellites orbiting our planet. Yet thisinfrastructure is under increasing pressure. economic burden on the sector, even while thecurrent estimated impact may appear temporarilymanageable. The projected cumulative costbetween 2025 and 2035, ranging between$25.8 billion and $42.3 billion, represents abusiness-as-usual scenario, one that assumesno major debris-generating events occur. This cost can be viewed as an implicit “tax”on the global space economy, which will onlyrise in the decades to come. If the ambitionsof a rapidly expanding space economy,encompassing commercial space stations,large satellite constellations and global satellitesservices are to be realized sustainably, urgentprogress is needed in regulation, methodologies,international collaboration, technology innovationand investment. The World Economic Forum and the Centre forSpace Futures have jointly led several communityconsultations to assess the escalating risk andeconomic cost of space debris, particularly thegrowing collision risk it presents over the comingdecade. Through close collaboration with the SaudiSpace Agency and LeoLabs to develop an orbitalpopulation model, and with Novaspace to producean economic forecast, this report quantifies thepotential economic impact of space debris on theglobal space economy. We hope this publication provides the globalspace community with valuable insights andguidance to address this growing challenge.Ensuring that the benefits of space remainaccessible, reliable and sustainable for all is notonly a technical imperative but a shared globalresponsibility. We invite the community to sharetheir perspectives and feedback as we continueto shape collective solutions for a safer, moresustainable orbital environment. Under the most optimistic assumptions, spacedebris imposes a significant and growing Executive summary The number of objects in orbit has surgedover the past two decades, driven largely bythe expansion of commercial space activity. formed the basis for an economic valuation analysisdeveloped in collaboration with Novaspace. Thisvaluation estimates cumulative losses of between$25.8 billion and $42.3 billion over the next decadeunder a business-as-usual scenario, assumingno major, cascading collisions. Most projectedlosses result from service disruptions, avoidancemanoeuvres and premature asset degradation,which reduce mission revenues and longevity.Together, these effects represent a sustaineddrag on the economic efficiency and profitabilityof the space sector as well as industries heavilyreliant on space data, emphasizing the urgencyof collective mitigation. Today’s population of orbital objects includesactive satellites, derelict rocket bodies and inactivesatellites, alongside millions of smaller debrisfragments. With space infrastructure increasinglyinterwoven with economic growth and daily life,this growth is starting to