2025年4季度金融科技与支付公开报表和估值指南（英）

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH Fintech & PaymentsPublic Comp Sheetand Valuation Guide Key takeaways Institutional Research Group Rudy YangSenior Research Analyst, EnterpriseFintech and Retail Fintechrudy.yang@pitchbook.com •New listings amid mixed IPO performance:Our comp table now includes Navan and Wealthfront after their recent IPOs. The IPO windowremains open entering 2026, but recent fintech public listings have seen varied performance. As of January 20, 2026, relative to their IPOprices, Circle (+135%), Figure (+187%), and Bullish (+5%) have seen positive share movement, while eToro (-41%), Chime (-5%), Klarna (-32%),Navan (-44%), and Wealthfront (-37%) have conversely seen negative returns. Performing well in public markets continues to require robustgrowth, improving unit economics, and demonstrated profitability. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on January 26, 2026 Contents Key takeaways2Stock returns4Revenue5EBITDA7 •Companies double down on AI:Though skepticism surrounding AI unit economics remains, recent earnings commentary shows that fintechcompanies believe AI can drive incremental operating leverage in some instances, with growth increasingly decoupled from headcount.Klarna linked its record Q3 performance and strong Q4 outlook to an AI-driven operating model that lowers servicing costs and improves riskdecisions at scale. SoFi discussed implementing automation across lending and servicing workflows,1while Navan disclosed that its AI agentnow handles about 54% of its customer interactions, reducing variable support costs as volumes grow.2Block reinforced the theme by aimingto cap its headcount at roughly 12,000 employees, while leveraging AI-driven productivity to support growth and margin expansion into 2026. •Public fintech companies are underperforming:Share performance across most fintech cohorts lagged the 2% returns posted by the S&P500 and Nasdaq in Q4 2025, reflecting a growing earnings visibility discount. While revenue trends are generally holding up, recent earningscalls have introduced more near-term profit and loss noise, ranging from higher reinvestment spending, accounting and contract-renewalheadwinds, and intentional margin resets. This has reduced investor confidence in near-term earnings visibility and shifted investor focusaway from raw growth to growth unit economics, margin quality, and repeatable profitability. In other words, the quality of earnings will be asignificant driver of valuations in the 2026 earnings cycle. PitchBook clients can access thefull Excel data pack for this reportvia theResearch Centeron thePitchBook Platform. •Structural growth deceleration becomes visible:Investors are concluding that many mature fintech companies are structurally slowergrowing than previously modeled, facing rising competitive and execution pressures, and entering multi-year investment cycles that cap near-term revenue acceleration. Fiserv’s Q3 2025 print was the clearest example of this: The company missed badly on earnings and thencut 2025 organic revenue growth guidance from between roughly 10% to 12% to between 3.5% to 4%, lowered adjusted earnings per sharetargets, and framed 2026 as a low-single-digit investment and transition year. •2026 growth estimates decline in response:Revenue growth estimates continue to trend lower as recent earnings and guidance resets forceinvestors to recalibrate. Neobanks and neobrokers, which have been home to fintech hyperscalers, such as Robinhood, Dave, and Nubank,see a median top-line forecast of 20% for 2026—versus 36% for 2025. High-growth fintech cohorts are forecast to achieve similar revenuegrowth this year, while medium-growth and legacy cohorts are projected to grow mid-single digits. •Varying EBITDA multiple re-ratings:Investors are demanding higher risk premiums as capital rotates to clearer AI winners and growthexpectations reset lower. Many companies are guiding to multi-year transition cycles rather than near-term acceleration, resulting in somevaluation multiple compression. The median enterprise value (EV)/trailing 12-month (TTM) EBITDA multiple for neobanks and neobrokerscompressed sharply from 33.7x to 19.8x, while medium-growth fintech and payments cohorts have seen more modest multiple compressionto 8.5x and 7.7x, respectively. However, high-growth fintech and payments cohorts continue to see EBITDA multiple expansion, with themedians rising moderately to 31.1x and 19.6x, respectively. One explanation is that investors remain willing to pay up for clearer revenuedurability and demonstrated AI-supported operating leverage. •Crypto and stablecoins are bifurcating into trading-driven upside and infrastructure-led earnings:Crypto strength was evident this pastearnings cycle, with Coinbase delivering strong total transaction revenue growth of 83% YoY and Robinhood’s crypto notional volumes up176% YoY—excluding volumes from its recent Bitstamp acquisition. In parallel, Circle grew its total revenue by