菲律宾可再生能源转型：趋势、机遇与挑战（英）

Renewable EnergyTransition in thePhilippines: Trends,Opportunities, Challenges Grendell VieMagoncia, Diogenes Alexander Xernan Lee, and RenzTorillos (APD) SIP/2026/005 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on November 6, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/334. 2026JAN IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia & Pacific Department Renewable Energy Transition in the Philippines: Trends, Opportunities, ChallengesPrepared by Grendell Vie Magoncia, Diogenes Alexander Xernan Lee, and Renz Torillos Authorized for distribution by Elif Arbatli SaxegaardJanuary 2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on November 6, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/334. ABSTRACT:The Philippines is actively pursuing a renewable energy (RE) transition to meet its NDC targetsand the COP28 pledge to triple global RE capacity. Under the Philippine Energy Plan 2023–2050, thegovernment aims to raise the RE share to 50 percent by 2050, supporting energy security and the balance ofpayments amid heavy import dependence. Reforms such as liberalized RE ownership, EVOSS, and GreenLanes have boosted investor confidence and record investments. However, major constraints remain, includingweak grid infrastructure, high capital costs, regional energy access gaps, land acquisition issues, and skillsshortages. Meeting the projected PHP 10.7 trillion investment requirement for 2029–2050 will require timelyand comprehensive policy solutions. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Magoncia, Grendell, Diogenes Alexander Xernan Lee, and Renz Torillos. 2025.“Renewable Energy Transition in the Philippines: Trends, Opportunities, Challenges.” IMF Selected IssuesPaper SIP/2026/005. Renewable Energy Transition inthe Philippines: Trends,Opportunities, Challenges Philippines Prepared by Grendell Vie Magoncia, Diogenes Alexander Xernan Lee, andRenz Torillos1 PHILIPPINES SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared ByDiogenes Alexander XernanLee,Grendell VieMagoncia,and Renz Torillos (all APD) CONTENTS A. Background __________________________________________________________________________2B. Recent Progress in the Philippine Renewable Energy Transition______________________5References____________________________________________________________________________ 17 ANNEX I. Summary of Government Initiatives Supporting Renewable Energy Transition _____ 14 RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IN THEPHILIPPINES: TRENDS, OPPORTUNITIES,CHALLENGES1 The Philippines is actively pursuing a renewable energy (RE) transition plan to meet its NationallyDetermined Contribution (NDC) targets, alongside the COP28 pledge to triple global RE capacity.Under the Philippine Energy Plan 2023–2050, the government has committed to increasing the REshare to 50 percent by 2050. The RE transition is also a priority for energy security and the balance ofpayments given the Philippines’ reliance on imported energy. Recent reforms such as liberalizing theRE sector (i.e. 100 percent foreign ownership for certain RE sources), Energy Virtual One Shared System(EVOSS), and Green Lanes for Strategic Investments have increased investor confidence leading torecord high RE investments. However, critical barriers persist, including limited grid infrastructure, highcapital costs, disparities in energy access gaps across regions, and complex land acquisition. While theRE expansion also brought in new opportunities for job creation, there is also a shortage in the skilledRE workforce. Achieving the authorities’ projected PHP 10.7 trillion total investment requirement from2029-2050—about 2 percent of 2024 GDP per annum —and the clean energy targets will requireprompt and comprehensive solutions to address such challenges. A.Background 1.The Philippines has one of the lowest installed energy capacities in the ASEAN regionand remains heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Electricity generation across ASEAN hasgrown rapidly over the past two decades, driven primarily by the continued dominance of fossilfuel-based power generation, alongside a growing diversification into renewable energy (RE)sources, particularly solar and wind. As of 2024, Indonesia is the largest electricity producer in theregion, followed by Vietnam, which has overtaken Malaysia and Thailand to become the secondlargest producer. In contrast, the Philippines’ energy supply remains constrained, exhibiting one ofthe lowest installed capacities in the ASEAN in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP, and on a percapita basis. In addition, the country’s dependence on fossil fuel imports is substantial, accountingfor approximately 6.1 percent of GDP in 202