宏观周报：地产销售小幅回升，关注上游价格波动

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料市场内部分化显著。具体来看，碳酸锂剧烈回调，市场情绪明显降温；有色金属铜、锡、铅价格持续震荡；市场避险情绪升温，春节因素影响需求，黑色商品集体收跌；国际能源近期价格小幅回升。 中游：年前中游开工淡季。本周化工行业除PX和尿素外，其余化工品开工继续处低位；黑色钢铁企业的建筑用钢，道路沥青等建材开工率持续回落，处三年期低位。有色金属、精致茶和饮料行业年前开工降低。 下游：消费呈结构性复苏：节前消费并非全面回暖。升级类消费（如高端白酒）和必选消费表现相对稳健，但大宗可选消费（如汽车）仍显疲软。机构资金的流入可能预示着对部分消费领域后续走势的看好。地产方面，尽管整体销售数据同比仍弱，但密集的利好政策正在改善市场预期。本期一线城市销售较上期有所改善。 细分行业 大农业：棕榈油、棉花和玉米价格小幅震荡；苹果库存持续回落。 能源：国际原油、液化天然气近期价格小幅回调。 采矿业：有色金属价格集体下行，铜铝库存回落；黑色金属价格低位持稳，炼焦煤库存上行。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯和PTA近期价格持续上行；尿素库存回落，MTO库存回升。 基建：混凝土价格小幅回落，产能下行；水泥价格回落，供给量回落。 地产：本期一线城市北上广深和成都，商品房销售较上期有所提升。厦门商品房销售价格回升。 物流运输：美西航线与欧洲航线指数回落。国内航班班次高位。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................124.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................134.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差............................................................................................