2026 IEF展望比较报告

Table of Contents Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...………………………………….…............3OutlooksHighlights…………………………………………………………………………..…………..………………..…...….........5ShortTermLiquidsOutlook………………………..……………………………………….………………...…………………........13BaselineEnergyData……………………………….……………………………………….……………….…………….................22Outlooksto2035……………………………….…………………………………………….……………………….….....................27Outlooksto2040……………………………….…………………………………………….…………………….…….....................34Outlooksto2050……………………………….…………………………………………………………….……..............................40AdditionalContext:IEAandOPECScenariosAlongsideOtherIndustryandAgencyOutlooks…….………………………...49SectorSpotlight:Transport.………………………………………………………………………………...……...........51SectorSpotlight:Electricity.…………………………………………………………………………………..………....55ConcludingObservationsonOutlookScenarios………………………………………...…………………………………..………60Appendix…………………………………………………………………………………………….....….......…………..…………….85 Introduction: IEF Comparative Outlook Analysis Sheds Light on GlobalEnergy Futures informing Policy and Investment Decisions •The annual energy outlooks of the IEA and OPEC play a central role in shaping global market expectations and guiding producer–consumerpolicy and investment decisions. Systematic comparison of these outlooks, and transparent discussion of their underlying scenarioassumptions through inclusive dialogue, strengthens the interpretation of their results and supports more informed decision-makingworldwide. •The Cancun IEF Ministerial Declaration (2010) called on the IEA, IEF, and OPEC to convene an annual symposium on energy outlooks,establishing a platform for structured producer–consumer dialogue. Since then, the IEF trilateral workprogrammeon energy outlooks andphysical and financial energy market interactions has grown in relevance, as geoeconomic shifts, evolving market dynamics, rapidadvancesin clean energy technologies, and the interplay of energy security, affordability, and sustainability with physical and financial energy marketfundamentals shape global market stability and the pursuit of shared energy security, sustainable development, climate and environmentalobjectives. •This report supports the 16thIEA–IEF–OPEC Symposium by systematically comparing the key scenarios and underlying methodologies ofthe latest IEA and OPEC outlooks and situating them within the broader landscape of energy scenarios produced annually by otherpublicand private sector institutions. •Originally developed to enhance market transparency and investor confidence, energy outlook scenarios have expanded in numberandscope, offering an increasingly diverse set of potential future pathways and serving as a key instrument for public engagement.While thisexpanding range of perspectives reflects differing assumptions and, in some cases, more diverse views on the feasibility of long-term trends,it also broadens the range of uncertainty, potentially complicating investment decisions and slowing the deployment of much needed energyinvestment. •Systematic peer review of energy outlooks enhances the consistency of historical baseline data and the transparency of modellingframeworks by aligning timeframes and methods and shedding light on the key assumptions that drive short-, medium-, and long-termprojections of energy supply and demand in different scenarios. By doing so, it enables stakeholders to more effectively interpret projectedglobal energy pathways and to assess scenario outcomes against evolving real world market conditions, technological progress,and policydevelopments. •Improved comparability of baseline data, and methodologies, including transparent documentation of modelling assumptions provides arange of scenario pathways with more and less probable outcomes dependent on policy perspectives and prevailing market realitiesbyassessing their relevance for real-world policy and investment decisions. Energy outlook uncertainties emphasize the need for dialogue andcollaboration to strengthen security, affordability, and sustainability globally •The energy outlooks compared by the IEF present a set of scenarios for global energy consumption to 2050, drawing on 14 sourcesandcovering more than 30 scenarios. These can be grouped into three main categories: 1.Reference and Evolving Policies scenarios assume the continuation of current trends, adopted policies, and technological progress, with outcomes shapedby pathway-specific dynamics. These scenarios typically project rising energy demand driven by population and economic growth, alongside a gradual shifttoward low-carbon energy sources. 2.Ambitious climate scenarios are oriented toward achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, consistent with limiting global warming to around 1.5°C, andin some cases up to 1.7°C by 2100. They entail profound transformations in energy systems, including a reduction in global energy demand, rapidexpansion of renewable generation and sustainable fuels, sharply higher electrification