TOAMS 6：研究结果揭示了美国个人人寿保险的新兴死亡经验

Results reveal emerging mortalityexperience in U.S. individual WTW’s TOAMS 6 study provideskey insights on the latest mortalitytrends for insurers The sixth edition of WTW’s life insurance industry mortalitystudy (TOAMS 6) provides our latest comprehensive analysisof mortality experience, covering the calendar years 2018 Study overview •17 companies•Ordinary individual life insurance products•All attained ages•An estimated 1.1 million deaths, $100 billion in death benefits, Selected findings Calendar year and attained age One key focus of TOAMS 6 is the impact of the COVID-19crisis, since this is our first study to include data from These results are innovative in their use of predictive modeling methods,which allow for the ability to isolate the excess mortality impact of COVIDwhile controlling for typical life insurance differentiators (including face The data reveals how thepandemic has skewedtraditional mortality rates, Mortality rates for individualsbelow age 70 reached theirhighest levels in 2021, with older Risk class and attained age TOAMS 6 identifies persistent differences in mortalityexperience across risk classes and attained ages.The data supports the industry consensus that For nonsmokers, the relativemortality of the two-classpreferred and residual standardcategories does not convergeeven by age 90; in other words,different levels of mortality risk By contrast, mortality ratesconverge cleanly by age 70across the various smoker riskclasses. This segment clearly Product type Product type continues to be a significant predictorof mortality with the impact varying by attained age. Whole life (WL) insuranceprovides us with a baselinefor product comparisons.Against this baseline, universallife with no guarantees (ULNG)policies consistently demonstrate By contrast, universal lifewith secondary guarantees(ULSG) policies have lowermortality than WL, particularlybetween ages 65 and 70;thereafter, these policies start% Exposure Notably, indexed universal life(IUL) policies demonstrate lowerrelative mortality experienceamong all product types, Company-level insights In order to assess variations at company level, our studycompares actual-to-expected (A/E) ratios to both the These comparisons show thatthe interquartile range andoverall range of A/E ratiosare significantly narrowerwhen using TOAMS as theexpected basis. This indicates That said, a notable residualdifferential remains. This is likelyto reflect factors not capturedin the TOAMS 6 data set —for example, underwriting Final takeaways The mortality trends identified in TOAMS 6 should be viewed as descriptiverather than prescriptive. While many findings confirm and quantify prevailingindustry viewpoints, they are not intended to dictate future assumptions or Contact Boyang MengSenior Consultant, Life PracticeInsurance Consulting & Technology The full version of TOAMS 6, which includes a much broader set of findingsthan those discussed here, is available for purchase. Future research willexplore additional topics such as the impact of policy lapses and surrenders as well as joint-life mortality. Disclaimer WTW hopes you found the general information provided in this publication informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not This paper may contain information or materials created or provided by third parties over whom Willis Towers Watson has no control orresponsibility. These third-party information or materials are not under Willis Towers Watson’s control, and Willis Towers Watson is notresponsible for the accuracy, copyright compliance, legality, or any other aspect of such third-party information or materials. The inclusion About Insurance Consulting & Technology WTW’s Insurance Consulting & Technology (ICT) business serves the insurance industry with a powerful combination of advisory services andleading-edge technology. Our mission is to innovate and transform insurance, and we deliver solutions that help clients better select, finance, We work with clients of all sizes globally, including most of the world’s leading insurance groups. Over 1,000 client companies use ourspecialist insurance software on six continents. With over 1,700 colleagues in 35 markets, we continually strive to be a partner and employer About WTW At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view andlocal expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help you sharpen your strategy, enhance organizational resilience,motivate your workforce and maximize performance. Working shoulder to shoulder with you, we uncover opportunities for sustainable wtwco.com/social-media Copyright © 2025 WTW. All rights reserved.wtw-HP-2025-0864 wtwco.com