台湾图片 2026展望

Summaryview •Economics:The AI boom is expected to continue driving strong export growth of 15% in 2026, leading to GDPgrowth of 4.8%. The finalized trade deal could bring effective tariff rate on Taiwan‘s exports to the U.S. 9.5% to8.1%, potentially positively impacting export growth by 0.5ppt. This significantly diminishes trade uncertainties •However, a K-shaped economic situation is likely to persist. Domestic consumption and private investment willlikely remain relatively weak, until the AI industry’s spillover effects on income growth are observed. On trade andproduction, sectors outside of semiconductors will face headwinds amid the reciprocal tariffs. •Facing potentially sustained weakness in traditional sectors, the CBC is projected to implement two 12.5bp ratecuts in 2026 (June and December), bringing its policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2026. We recognize risks of amore moderate pace, if non-semiconductor sectors perform better than anticipated. Meanwhile, fiscal spending •FX:We expect the TWD to strengthen, driven by three key tailwinds: (a) the AI-driven export boom; (b) increasedequity inflows; and (c) moderating outflows.Furthermore, as the CBC’s preferred FX valuation models showvaluations have returned to the lower end of their band, the central bank should be more comfortable allowing the •A short-term risk is a more active unwinding of lifers’ FX hedging ratios given the recentaccounting rule changes.Given these changes, we expect the NDF curve to remain positive and elevated. •Rates:In response to falling property prices, the CBC has been injecting liquidity and is expected to continue itseasing policy, contributing to a slowdown in GDP growth to a forecasted 4.8% in 2026. This environment is likelyto push front-end rates lower and cause the yield curve to bear-steepen by ~25bp in the second half of the year. The AI boom is expected to continue supporting strong GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026 •Taiwan’s Q3 GDP surged by 7.64% YoY,strongly exceeding market consensus. As such, we have revised up our Q4 2025 GDP growthforecast to 6.7% from 3.6% and raised our annual growth projection to 7%. •Looking at 2026, we expectthe AI boom to continue supporting strong GDP growth of 4.8%. Demand for high-end chips is anticipated toremain elevated, driven by the expansion plans of major tech companies. This will likely fuel strong export growth of 15% in2026 (albeit lower •Taiwan and the U.S. have finalized a trade agreement. This accord reduces reciprocal tariffs from 20% to 15%, lowers automotivetariffs from25% to 15%, and establishes 0% tariffs for products like aircraft parts and generic drugs. Consequently, the total effectivetariff rate on Taiwan's exports to the U.S. is projected to fall from 9.5% to 8.1%, positively impacting export growth by 0.5ppt. This significantly diminishestrade uncertainties and downside risks to our forecast. K-shaped economy is likely to persist •Taiwan'sK-shapedeconomicdivergencehasintensifiedalongsideitsstronggrowthin2025.WhileAI-relateddemandprovidedamajorboosttobothexportsandindustrialproduction,itspositiveimpactoninvestment,incomeandconsumptionhasbeenlimited.Thissplitisalso •This trend will likely persist in 2026. Domestic consumption will likely remain relatively weak, until the AI industry’s spillover effects onbroader income growth are observed. On trade and production, sectors outside semiconductors should continue to face headwindsamid thereciprocal tariffs. CBC is likely to implement two 12.5bp rate cuts in 2026 Housing price expectations •Facing potential sustained weakness in traditional sectors, the CBC is projected to implement two 12.5bp rate cuts in June and December,bringing its policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2026. •We recognize risks of a more moderate pace. The 1.5ppts effective tariff rate reduction could help alleviate headwinds in traditionalmanufacturing. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected semiconductor sector may support income growth and domestic consumption. If non- •Inflation is unlikely a constraint for monetary policy. The 2025 CPI concluded at an average of 1.66%, driven by falling globalcommodityprices and weak private consumption—a trend likely to continue into 2026. We expect inflation to drop to 1.4%in 2026,lower than the CBC’s •The property sector has cooled, evidenced by mortgage growth halving, prices turning negative, and price increase expectations falling to2020 levels. The CBC has announced it will drop credit regulations in 2026, allowing banks to set their own targets. Fiscal spending expected to increase due to allocation reform •The new Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures,revised in Dec 2024, will significantly increase localgovernment fiscal revenue by NTD 370bn. This will drive a 0.4ppt rise in local government spending relative to GDP. Meanwhile, central •Fiscal investment will continue its expansion, with infrastructure investment growing by an additional NTD 30 b