内存追踪器（1月）：抛物线式价格上涨持续

MEMORY TRACKER (Jan): Parabolic price hike continues This monthly tracker (download datasethere) summarizes spot and contract price datareleased by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compares that with our model & investorexpectation.Price surge was more violent than expected, with Jan DRAM contract price up by Mark Li+852 2123 2645 Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822 86% vs 4QCY25. Spot price: PC DRAM spot price increase remained solid, up 27% MoM in Jan for bothDDR4 and DDR5. Server DDR5 surprisingly shot up by 110% MoM. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623 Contract price: DRAM contract prices increase accelerated in Jan, more than expected.PC & smartphone DRAM inventory was down as pull-forward purchase resulted in solidend device shipment. And with unrelenting appetite from CSP, suppliers took the chanceto maximize profit. Overall Jan DRAM contract price rose 50%+ MoM & was 86% highervs. 4QCY25, with 98% for PC, 90% for Server, 89% for Mobile & 60% for Consumer. Into2QCY26 or later PC & smartphone should suffer end demand destruction but CSP demandshould stay robust, and DRAM contract price rise is expected to moderate to 20-25% QoQ. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669 April Li+1 917 344 8339 increase for 1QCY26. Spot price: NAND wafer spot price increase stayed robust at 17-25% MoM. Contract price: Overall Jan NAND wafer contract price was up by ~30% MoM and 75%vs. 4QCY25, as some module customers began to hesitate but supply turned tighter. For eMMC/UFS used principally in Mobile, contract price was expected to rise by 60% QoQ in1QCY26 also driven by supply shortage, while some customers still tried to secure moreinventory before further price increase. Overall contract price for wafer & Mobile NAND was indicated to go up by 74% QoQ in 1QCY26, and we believe SSDs were seeing a similarprice hike. 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC andMobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forwardpurchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate,as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however maystay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand. On the other hand, as thecapex surge will gradually turn into more supply, we still believe memory price increase will BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 140,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 750,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$330.00. KIOXIA: We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 7,000.00. SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $1,000.00 DETAILS TrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe Jan 2026 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory Price Tracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average ASPchange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples & will be additionally considered so that we can compare the overall ASP with ourprojection. We also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Please feel free to find our most recent market reviewand download our industry and company models from the links below. •CoWoS/HBM Model •DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron Model•KIOXIA Model•SanDisk Model Price increase was more violent than expected. Jan contract prices increase accelerated and indicated 86% QoQ higher for DRAM in 1QCY26. PC & Mobile demand is likely to weaken meaningfully but pull-forward demand delaysit. DRAM price rise hence may moderate into 2QCY26 but AI demand likely can still keep price elevated this year. •Spot price: PC DRAM: PC DRAM chip spot price continued climbing, by about 27% MoM in Jan for both DDR4 and DDR5. Module houses continued buying from the channel market to fulfill customer orders, while chip supply from vendors remainedlimited. So spot price increase remained strong, only showing some slow down towards the end of month likely asChinese New Year approaches (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3,Exhibit 4,Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6). price hike by vendors in Jan (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12). •Average: Overall, taking a weighted average of multiple samples, we find contracts set in Jan indicated conventional coverage period of contracts usually do not align with calendar quarter. And the mix among PC, mobile, server, etc. canhave a big impact on ASP too. And notably HBM pricing is likely to take a QoQ dip1QCY26 as new supply agreements kickin. So the weighted average contract price increase here won’t match the increase reported in quarterly earnings but d