全球视频游戏：解读“精灵计划”（Project Genie）与人工智能的颠覆性影响

Global Video Gaming: Addressing Project Genie, and Al disruption Project Genie, an“experimental research prototype"that lets creators generate,edit,andexplore 3D virtual worlds. The concept of 3D World models isn't new per se, but the videotrailer immediately drove an explosion of Al disruption fears - driving sharp declines invarious US-listed video gaming stocks. We've outlined some quick thoughts in response,atleastas a startingpointfordiscussions with investors. +85221232659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com +85221232618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com highly impressive, it remains nascent. For now at least, in-world sessions are cappedat 60 seconds, and cannot be saved for re-use.We expect the technology behind 3Dworld models to evolve rapidly,and one can always argue on the basis of what version5 or 7 might be able to do. But even then, it's worth remembering that video games aredeterministic systemsgoverned by rules designedto deliver consistent experiences,whereas generative Almodels areprobabilistic.Moreover,video game developmentrepresents the amalgamation of a wide range of disciplines -including but also farbeyondthe rendering of 3D environments. Many input variables go into determining the culturalimpactandcommercialsuccessofnewgames-includingthefuzzyandhard-to-quantify +8522123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com +81367776993charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.com "Fun"is a complicated thing.Fine boundaries separate whether (sometimes superficiallysimilar...)game narratives is engaging or cliche, how gamers perceive gameplay mechanicslike parry timing and"feel",and howmuchcomplexity (e.g. in character progression andcrafting systems) is engaging versus overwhelming. Multiplayer games (which we'vealwaysconsideredvenuesforgamerstoexpressdeep-seatedhumandesires...likesurvival and conquest) introduce additional layers of complexity like in-game balance (adynamic process influenced by gamers looking for optimisation strategies and exploits),matchmaking and anti-cheat systems,and the pacing of contentupdates. Creatingnovelcontentis difficult.Someof the above challenges areprobablysolvablewith"more Al", others less so. But we think it's worth noting that video game development- like other forms ofcreativemedia-isultimatelyaboutcreating novel experiences.Thehuman brain's tendencyto release less dopamine in response torepeat experiences iswell established. Innovations like Unreal Engine (and generative Al to a lesser extent) havealreadyexpandedthesupplyofgames,andwehavenodoubtthelatterwillaccelerate.Whether Al (or humans using Al) can expand the supply of unique and differentiated contentideas is the better but harder question to answer. There's an onus on the companies to"figure out"Al.Ourbase case is Al developmentfastercreationofUGCcontent(withhelpfromAl)couldpotentiallybeapositiveforgamesoperating a platform model (e.g.Tencent's shooters).We'd also emphasise the role playedcommercial success.Within theglobal video gaming industry,we expect our Asia-basedcoverageto bebetterpositionedtotake advantage of Al progress -than in the Westwhereattitudestowards Al havebecomeincreasinglyantagonistic. per se, given immense investor desire to buy into Al growth (and conversely, avoid anything with disruption risk), but in ourviewreflects an overly simplistic viewof video gamingdevelopment and the drivers of success.We expectthedevelopmentof generative Al tools to ultimately complimentvideo gamingdevelopment over time, and expectthecombination of novelgameplay ideas, IP strength and name recognition,and multiplayer network effects to represent important drivers ofcommercialsuccessorfailure. Within the global video gaming industry, we continue to be surprised by the increasingly antagonistic views on Al among theWestern industry'srank-and-file. In comparison,we expect our Asia-based stock coverage to benefit from both superior R&Dcost and productivity,and generally more proactive attitudes towards understanding and leveraging ongoing Al development. This brief note is intendedto be a snapreaction tothemeltdown in various video gaming stocks on Friday,in response to Google's Project Genie teaser (see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2).We've summarised our discussions with several video gamingindustry contacts, and reactions online from industry luminaries. We expect the debate to remain very open-ended in theforeseeablefuture,and hopethis representsa starting pointfordiscussions with investors.The factthatProject Geniewas arguablythe secondmost interestingthingthat happened sinceFriday(afterthe rise of Moltbook, though that has far less direct impacts on our sector coverage)feels like a reflection of just how fast things aremoving in Al. As such, we sympathize with the moves on Friday to some degree (though their violence was probably exacerbatedbythings likethe starting valuations ofvarious companies,drawdown limits among tactical investors...).It's clearthe investordesireto investin anything Al remains immense,which isreflected in thewi