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LITE FY2Q26：光通信全技术路线终极赢家

2026-02-04 赵方舟环球富盛理财 Billy

核心观点与关键数据

业绩指引超预期：LITE FY2Q26 营收达 6.66 亿美元，同比增长 65%；毛利率 42.5%，环比增长 3.1pp；EPS 1.67 美元，环比 +51%/同比 +299%。营业利润率达 25.2%，创历史新高。FY2Q26 营收中，组件营收 4.44 亿美元，环比增长 17%，同比增长 68%，由 EML 芯片、DCI 长途传输相关组件驱动；系统营收 2.22 亿美元，环比增长 43%，同比 +60%，主要由 CloudLight 光模块（环比增加约 5000 万美元）和 OCS 贡献推动。工业市场持平。公司指引 1Q26 营收将在 7.8 亿至 8.3 亿美元（中值同比增长 85%），OPM 预计 30-31%，EPS 预计 2.15 至 2.35 美元。

EML 持续紧缺，100G 向 200G 迁移：本季 EML 出货量创纪录，目前以 100G 为主，200G 产品开始放量。磷化铟晶圆厂产能极度紧缺。公司提前实现 40% 扩产计划中的一半以上（约 20% 已在 Q2 贡献收益）。200G 产品仅占出货量 5%，但贡献数据中心激光芯片营收的 10%，ASP 约为 100G 两倍左右。CW 激光器方面，已开始向外部市场出货 800G 用的 CW 激光器，计划将自产的 CW 激光器整合进自有的光收发器中，预计在 Q2 末或 Q3 初推出。

OCS 季度营收超 1000 万美元：本季度 OCS 营收已超过 1000 万美元，且积压订单超过 4 亿美元，大部分将于 CY2H26 交付。预计谷歌 OCS 需求将在 2027 年继续爆发，公司有望实现 10 亿美元 OCS 收入。

CPO 激光器拓展至 ELS 模块，Scale-up CPO 2027 年底出货：公司获得数亿美元英伟达 scale-out CPO 超高功率 (UHP) 激光器订单，预计 1H27 出货。公司正在从直接出货激光芯片扩展到提供 ELS（外部光源）模块。管理层指出，ELS 模块相比于单纯售卖激光芯片 ASP 显著提高，预计能带来 2 到 2.5 倍的收入增长。此前预估 CPO 业务的季度营收约为 5000 万美元甚至更高。预计公司 CPO 业务有机会在 CY2026/2027 年实现约 1.7 亿/5.5 亿美元营收。

研究结论与评级：买入评级，目标价 USD540。预计公司 CY2026/2027 年营收达 $4.5/7bn，EPS 达 $13/19，对应目标价 $540 基于 28x CY2027 PE。

财务摘要

| 年度 | 营收 (亿美元) | 同比增长 (%) | 净利润 (亿美元) | 同比增长 (%) | EPS (美元) | PE | |------------|--------------|--------------|----------------|--------------|------------|----| | FY-25A | 1,645 | 21% | 146 | 101% | 2.0 | 232 | | FY-26E | 2,996 | 82% | 692 | 295% | 8.0 | 59 | | FY-27E | 5,952 | 99% | 1,416 | 105% | 16.5 | 29 | | FY-28E | 7,728 | 30% | 1,838 | 30% | 21.4 | 22 |

关键指标预测

| 年度 | 营收增长率 (%) | 营业利润增长率 (%) | 净利润增长率 (%) | 毛利率 (%) | 营业利润率 (%) | |------------|--------------|----------------|--------------|------------|--------------| | FY-26E | 82.1% | 397.7% | 372.4% | 44.5% | 26.6% | | FY-27E | 98.7% | 30.3% | 18.1% | 28.1% | 17.4% | | FY-28E | 29.8% | 106.1% | 125.2% | 45.0% | 27.7% |

分析师介绍

分析师赵方舟，香港大学学士毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括 AI GPU/ASIC 及 AI 互联。2022-2025 年曾任职于海通国际研究部，2025 年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。

LITEFY2Q26:Finalwinner of allopticalnetworkingroadmaps 点评: ➢业绩指引超预期：FY2Q26营收达6.66亿美元，同比增长65%；毛利率42.5%，环比增长3.1pp；EPS1.67美元，环比+51%/同比+299%。营业利润率达25.2%，创历史新高。FY2Q26营收中，组件(Components)营收4.44亿美元，环比增长17%，同比增长68%，由EML芯片、DCI长途传输相关组件驱动。系统(Systems)营收2.22亿美元，环比增长43%，同比+60%，主要由CloudLight光模块（环比增加约5000万美元）和OCS贡献推动。工业市场持平。公司指引1Q26营收将在7.8亿至8.3亿美元（中值同比增长85%），OPM预计30-31%，EPS预计2.15至2.35美元。 ➢EML持续紧缺，100G向200G迁移：本季EML出货量创纪录，目前以100G为主，200G产品开始放量。磷化铟晶圆厂产能处于极度紧缺状态。公司提前实现了40%扩产计划中的一半以上（约20%已在Q2贡献收益）。200G产品仅占出货量5%，但贡献数据中心激光芯片营收的10%，ASP约为100G两倍左右。CW激光器方面，已开始向外部市场出货800G用的CW激光器，计划将自产的CW激光器整合进自有的光收发器中预计在Q2末或Q3初推出。 ➢OCS季度营收超1000万美元：本季度OCS营收已超过1000万美元，且积压订单超过4亿美元大部分将于CY2H26交付。我们预计谷歌OCS需求将在2027年继续爆发，公司有望实现10亿美元OCS收入。 ➢CPO激光器拓展至ELS模块，Scale-up CPO 2027年底出货：公司获得了数亿美元的英伟达scale-outCPO超高功率(UHP)激光器订单，预计1H27出货。公司正在从直接出货激光芯片扩展到提供ELS（外部光源）模块。管理层指出，ELS模块相比于单纯售卖激光芯片ASP显著提高，预计能带来2到2.5倍的收入增长。公司此前预估CPO业务的季度营收约为5000万美元甚至更高。另外2027年末预计将实现第一批用于英伟达机柜内scale-upCPO出货。我们预计公司CPO业务有机会在CY2026/2027年实现约1.7亿/5.5亿美元营收。买入评级，目标价USD540：我们预计公司CY2026/2027年营收达$4.5/7bn，EPS达$13/19，对应目标价$540基于28xCY2027 PE。分析师介绍分析师赵方舟，香港大学学士毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括AI GPU/ASIC及AI互联。该分析师2022-2025年曾任职于海通国际研究部，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。邮箱:eugene.zhao@gpf.com.hk电话:(852)6082 5609; (86) 178 9848 1530 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.

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