教育对当地和移民目的地冲击的反应：来自中国的证据

JessicaLeightandYaoPan Abstract Overthelast20years,Chinahasexperiencedsubstantialpositiveshockstoexport-orientedindustries—especiallyfollowingitsaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization—andtheseshockshavehadmajorimplica-tionsforhumancapitalinvestment.Oneprimarychannelthroughwhichexportexpansioncanshapechoicesabouthumancapitalaccumulationispositivelabor-demandshocks,andtheseshockscanbeobservedbothatpotentialwithin-countrymigrationdestinationsandinthelocalityofbirth.Exploitingcross-countyvariationinthereductioninexporttariffuncertaintypost-WTO,bothlocallyandatplausiblemigrationdestinations,thisPublic Disclosure Authorized JELclassification:F14,F16,J24,O15,O18,O19 Keywords:exportshock,humancapitalattainment,China 1.IntroductionPublic Disclosure Authorized Inrecentdecades,therisingtideofglobalizationhashadsubstantialeffectsondevelopingcountryeconomies(GoldbergandPavcnik2007).Amongthemostimportantoftheseeffectshasbeenthecon-tractionofagricultureandtheassociatedshiftofproductivefactorsintonon-agriculturalproduction,ashiftthatfrequentlyentailswithin-countrymigrationtoexport-orientedurbanareas.Inadditiontoasubstantialtheoreticalliteraturepredictingareallocationofworkersfromlessincome-elasticsectorssuchasagriculturalproductionintomoreincome-elasticsectors(e.g.,manufacturing)inresponsetoincreased Majorsectoralshiftsinthelabormarketstimulatedbyexportshockspresumablyhavesubstantialimplicationsforhumancapitalinvestment,andtheeffectsoftradeliberalizationoneducationhavebeenPublic Disclosure Authorized JessicaLeight(corresponding author)is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington,DC,USA;heremailaddressisj.leight@cgiar.org.YaoPanisaneconomistatAmazon;heremailaddressisyao.pan00@gmail.com.AsupplementaryonlineappendixisavailablewiththisarticleatTheWorldBankEconomicReviewwebsite. previouslyexploredinpapersfocusedonMexico,India,andChina(Atkin2016;Edmonds,Topalova,andPavcnik2009;Edmonds,Pavcnik,andTopalova2010;Li2018;LinandLong2020).However,thisliteraturehasgenerallyfocusedontheeffectsoflocalshocks(withinametropolitan-arealabormarket), andhasnotsystematicallyanalyzedtheeffectsofexportshocksatplausiblewithin-countrymigrationdes-tinations.1Giventhattheexistingliteraturesuggeststhatout-migrationfromruralareasisanimportant Theobjectiveofthispaperistoanalyzetheeffectsofpositiveshockstoexport-orientedproductiononeducationalattainmentamongChineseyouth,analyzingshockstoboththelocaleconomyandtheeconomiesofpotentialdomesticmigrationdestinationsaspredictedbypastmigrationpatterns.Morespecifically,thepaperexploitsadiscontinuitygeneratedbyChina’sWTOaccessionandtheassociatedreductionintariffuncertaintyintheUSmarket.PriortoWTOaccession,China’smostfavorednation(MFN)statusintheUnitedStatesrequiredannualrenewalbyCongress,andthusentailedsomenon-trivialrisk;afailuretorenewwouldhaveimpliedthatChineseexportsweresubjecttothemuchhighertariff Theidentificationstrategythenentailsadifference-in-difference,comparingyouthwhoreachedtheageof16—theageofmatriculationintohighschoolinChina—beforeandafterWTOaccession,incountiesdifferentiallyexposedtothereductionintariffuncertainty.Here,thekeyvariableofinterestcapturesexposureusingboththelocalshockandtheshockobservedinpotentialmigrationdestinationcounties,thelatterproxiedbycountieswherelocalresidentshavepreviouslymigrated.Intuitively,countiesthat Thispositiveshocktolabordemandinexport-orientedindustriesmayhaveseveraleffects:Householdincomemayincreaseifparentsaccessnewemploymentinexport-drivenindustries;higherdemandformanufacturinglabor,eitherlocallyoratmigrationdestinations,mayofferadolescentsamoreattractiveoutsideoptionvis-a-viseducation;andthelong-runreturnstoeducationmayalsochange,plausiblyincreasingifexportexpansionisassociatedwithanincreaseinthereturnstoskill(GoldbergandPavcnik2007).Utilizingmicro-leveldataoneducationalattainmentreportedintheChinaHouseholdIncome Theprimaryresultssuggestthatyouthreachingthepointofhigh-schoolmatriculationpost-2002incountiesexposedtohigherNTRgapseitherlocallyoratmigrationdestinationsshowasignificant 1Aseparateliteratureon“braindrain”—describedinconsiderablygreaterdetailbelow—hasprobedtheeffectofshocksatinternationalmigrationdestinations,butinternationalmigrationisrelativelyrarecomparedtowithin-countrymi- points.Thisdeclineisobservedeveninspecificationscontrollingforarangeofindividualcovariates,aswellasprovince-yearfixedeffects,andaccordinglydoesnotreflectdifferentialpatternsinhigh-schoolenrollmentcomparingacrosshighlyindustrializedandlessindustrializedprovinces.Theanalysisalsopresentsevidencethathigh-andlow-NTR-gapcountieswerepreviouslycharacterizedbylargelysimilartrendsinhigh-schoolenrollment,withthedivergentpatterndrivenbydifferentiallabordemandemerging Thispaperbuildsontheliteratureanalyzingtheeffectsoftradeshocksonhumancapitalaccumu-lation,andexpandsitbysimultaneouslyanalyzingtheeffectsofbothlocalandmigrationdestinationshocks.Morespecifically,thispapercontributestoseveralrelatedstrandsofwork.First,weaddtothegrowingevid