教育对当地和移民目的地冲击的反应：来自中国的证据

JessicaLeightandYaoPan Abstract Overthelast20years,Chinahasexperiencedsubstantialpositiveshockstoexport-orientedindustries—especiallyfollowingitsaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization—andtheseshockshavehadmajorimplica-tionsforhumancapitalinvestment.Oneprimarychannelthroughwhichexportexpansioncanshapechoicesabouthumancapitalaccumulationispositivelabor-demandshocks,andtheseshockscanbeobservedbothatpotentialwithin-countrymigrationdestinationsandinthelocalityofbirth.Exploitingcross-countyvariationinthereductioninexporttariffuncertaintypost-WTO,bothlocallyandatplausiblemigrationdestinations,thisanalysisfindsthatyouthinChinareachingmatriculationagepost-accessionincountiesexperiencingalargerexportshock(eitherlocallyoratthosedestinations)showalowerprobabilityofenrollinginhighschool.Thispatternisobservedinasampleincludingbothyouthwhoultimatelymigrateandyouthwhodonotmigrate.Forurbanyouth,theeffectsoflocalshocksarelargerthantheeffectsofdestinationshocks,buttheoppositepatternisobservedforruralyouth.Public Disclosure Authorized JELclassification:F14,F16,J24,O15,O18,O19 Keywords:exportshock,humancapitalattainment,China 1.IntroductionPublic Disclosure Authorized Inrecentdecades,therisingtideofglobalizationhashadsubstantialeffectsondevelopingcountryeconomies(GoldbergandPavcnik2007).Amongthemostimportantoftheseeffectshasbeenthecon-tractionofagricultureandtheassociatedshiftofproductivefactorsintonon-agriculturalproduction,ashiftthatfrequentlyentailswithin-countrymigrationtoexport-orientedurbanareas.Inadditiontoasubstantialtheoreticalliteraturepredictingareallocationofworkersfromlessincome-elasticsectorssuchasagriculturalproductionintomoreincome-elasticsectors(e.g.,manufacturing)inresponsetoincreasedaccesstoexportmarkets(Matsuyama2009;Herrendorf,Rogerson,andValentinyi2014;Matsuyama2018),thispredictionhasbeensubstantiatedempiricallyinthecontextofChinaandVietnam(ErtenandLeight2021;McCaigandPavcnik2013).Thereisalsoevidenceofmeaningfulin-migrationintourbanareasexperiencingpositiveexport-drivenshocksinChina(Facchinietal.2019).MajorsectoralshiftsinthelabormarketstimulatedbyexportshockspresumablyhavesubstantialPublic Disclosure Authorized implicationsforhumancapitalinvestment,andtheeffectsoftradeliberalizationoneducationhavebeen JessicaLeight(corresponding author)is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington,DC,USA;heremailaddressisj.leight@cgiar.org.YaoPanisaneconomistatAmazon;heremailaddressisyao.pan00@gmail.com.AsupplementaryonlineappendixisavailablewiththisarticleatTheWorldBankEconomicReviewwebsite. previouslyexploredinpapersfocusedonMexico,India,andChina(Atkin2016;Edmonds,Topalova,andPavcnik2009;Edmonds,Pavcnik,andTopalova2010;Li2018;LinandLong2020).However,thisliteraturehasgenerallyfocusedontheeffectsoflocalshocks(withinametropolitan-arealabormarket),andhasnotsystematicallyanalyzedtheeffectsofexportshocksatplausiblewithin-countrymigrationdes-tinations.1Giventhattheexistingliteraturesuggeststhatout-migrationfromruralareasisanimportantdimensionofstructuraltransformation,ignoringtherelationshipbetweenyoutheducationaldecisionsanddestinationshocksmaymeaningfullyunderestimatetheroleofexport-orientedshocksinshapinghumancapitalaccumulation. Theobjectiveofthispaperistoanalyzetheeffectsofpositiveshockstoexport-orientedproductiononeducationalattainmentamongChineseyouth,analyzingshockstoboththelocaleconomyandtheeconomiesofpotentialdomesticmigrationdestinationsaspredictedbypastmigrationpatterns.Morespecifically,thepaperexploitsadiscontinuitygeneratedbyChina’sWTOaccessionandtheassociatedreductionintariffuncertaintyintheUSmarket.PriortoWTOaccession,China’smostfavorednation(MFN)statusintheUnitedStatesrequiredannualrenewalbyCongress,andthusentailedsomenon-trivialrisk;afailuretorenewwouldhaveimpliedthatChineseexportsweresubjecttothemuchhighertariffratesreservedfornon-marketeconomies.AsofJanuary1,2002,thisuncertaintywasreducedtozeroasChinabecameaWTOmember,apositiveshockthatdisproportionatelybenefitedindustriesexposedtohighuncertaintyexante,andregionscharacterizedbyahighlevelofconcentrationintheseindustries.Themagnitudeofpre-accessionuncertaintyiscapturedbyameasuredenotedthenormaltraderelations(NTR)gap,equaltotheaveragedifferencebetweenthelowertariffsprovidedtocountriesbenefitingfromNTRstatus,andthehighertariffimposedonnon-NTRnations.Theidentificationstrategythenentailsadifference-in-difference,comparingyouthwhoreachedtheage of16—theageofmatriculationintohighschoolinChina—beforeandafterWTOaccession,incountiesdifferentiallyexposedtothereductionintariffuncertainty.Here,thekeyvariableofinterestcapturesexposureusingboththelocalshockandtheshockobservedinpotentialmigrationdestinationcounties,thelatterproxiedbycountieswherelocalresidentshavepreviouslymigrated.Intuitively,countiesthatweremoreexposedtoareductionintariffuncertaintyexperiencedalargerincreaseinexport-drivenmanufacturingandassociatedlabordemandpost-2002(ErtenandLeight2021).Ourmeasurescapturethisincreaseinlabordemandinboththelocalandthemigr