国情咨文：强劲的人工智能资本支出有望扩大SOX反弹

State of the Union: robust AI capex poisedto extend a broadening SOX rally Industry Overview SOX off to a solid Jan, AI capex could keep party going 01 February 2026 EquityUnited States Despite a wall of worries re AI funding,valuations and interest rate volatility, chip stocks(SOX index) are off to a solid start, up ~13% YTD, marking the second-best Jan in past20 years and well ahead of the SPX up just 1%. Notably this outperformance hasoccurred without participation from compute leaders NVDA (+2.5% YTD) and AVGO (-4.3%), with rally instead driven by memory, semicaps (LRCX, ASML, AMAT) and morerecently analogs (TXN, MPWR, ADI). We expect compute stocks to re-energize based onconstructive AI capex commentary from hyperscalers highlighting three points: 1) AI Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com CY26the year of AI inference crossover, check our primer Inference is the key to delivering the ROI in AI and will require aspectrum of cost andperformance optimized silicon. We flag here our primer (published earlier today, linked Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com here) on AI inference and the range of silicon options–GPU, CPU, ASIC, other merchantsilicon with implications on compute, memory and semicap vendors. Training remainsimportant but CY26 could mark the year when inference becomes a larger workload toeventually deliver the majority or 75% of $1.2Tn/CY30E AI capex. Takeaways:1) NVDA in the lead, broadest pipeline in training (Blackwell, Vera Rubin), inference (Rubin CPX,Groq, Vera CPU), supply assurance.2) AVGOwell aligned with Google, Anthropic andnew opportunities at OpenAI, Apple and xAI. Stock selloff overdone on overstatedworries around Google insourcing (COT) risk.3) AMDcredible second source to NVDAmerchant silicon, we believe Friday’s AMD selloff was based on overstated worries re Glossary SOX: Phila Semiconductor IndexSPX: S&P 500 IndexNVDA: NvidiaAVGO: BroadcomLRCX: Lam ResearchKLAC: KLA CorpAMAT: Applied MaterialsTXN: Texas InstrumentsMPWR: Monolithic PowerAMD: Advanced Micro DevicesADI: Analog DevicesCOT: Customer Owned ToolingGPU: Graphics Processing UnitCPU: Central Processing UnitCPX: NVDA Product NameASIC: Application Specific IntegratedCircuit Optics/CPOdemand real, but rally overdone, prefer CRDO Optical transceiver and component vendors have been among the strongestchipperformers, second only to memory. There is little debate on the need for increasedoptical connectivity as AI clusters scale in size and bandwidth. NVDA’s upcomingphotonic switch launch (see Feb-3 webinar with LITE, which reports this week alongsidepeer COHR) is a potential catalyst, and Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI has furtheramplified interest in new optical architectures. That said, we note: (1) beyond Meta,limited evidence of hyperscaler appetite for co-packaged optics (CPO) given the higheroperational complexity and greater bill-of-materials control shifting to NVDA and AVGO; Keep eye on NXPI (autos) and TER (a top SMidcap) This week we also keep an eye on results fromNXPI(auto units sluggish/exposed totight memory but valuation supportive) andTER(positive read-across from compAdvantest, well-levered to AI memory/ASIC testing, emerging robotics themes.) BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. NXPI: NXP Semi, CRDO: Credo TER: Teradyne COHR: Coherent Exhibit2: Stocks mentionedPrices and ratings for stocks mentioned in this report Price objective basis & risk Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) Our $260 PO is based on 27x our 2027E non-GAAP EPS. Our PO basis is towards themiddle of AMD's historical 13x-58x range, justified by AI growth and CPU share gainsoffset by slower growth in cyclical embedded/console markets. Downside risks: 1) Execution on first rack-scale product (MI400 Series), 2)Timing/Magnitude of Middle East AI Projects, 3) Lumpy nature of consumer andenterprise spending that could create delays in acceptance and success of new products, Upside risks are greater share gain potential in the PC and server processor marketagainst competitors Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) Our $350 PO is based on 31x CY2027E P/E. Our PO basis is above historical median of26x but within the historical 14x-40x range and justified based on ADI's best-in-classprofitability and differentiated/secular comms exposure, offset by near-term concerns Downside risks to our price objective: 1) Economic downturn, which could reducedemand for automotive, industrial products, impacting gross margins, especially givenrecent capital expenditures and higher fixed cost footprint. 2) Inability to realize th