2016年以来沙特阿拉伯的结构性改革（英）

Structural Reforms inSaudi Arabia Since 2016 David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina M. Tavares, Masashi Saito WP/26/14 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026JAN IMF Working Paper Prepared by David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina M. Tavares, Masashi Saito* Authorized for distribution by Amine Mati IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Since 2016, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms have improved governance, businessregulations, capital markets, the labor market, and the external sector, narrowing structural gaps with frontiereconomies and improving economic performance. This paper summarizes progress, estimates the output RECOMMENDED CITATION:Koll, David, Andrea Medici, Marina M. Tavares, and Masashi Saito. 2026.Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016. IMF Working Paper WP/26/14, Washington DC. WORKING PAPERS Structural Reforms in Saudi ArabiaSince 2016 Prepared by David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina M. Tavares, Masashi Saito Contents Glossary ...............................................................................................................................................................4 II.Taking Stock of Structural Reforms since 2016 .................................................................................7Saudi Arabia’s Structural Reforms Since 2016 .......................................................................................7Output Impact of Saudi Arabia’s Structural Reforms between 2016 and 2024 .....................................12 III.Saudi Arabia’s Remaining Structural Gaps ......................................................................................15 IV.Special Focus on Labor Markets and Skills Mismatch to Close the Gap ......................................17 Recent Developments ...........................................................................................................................17Future of the Saudi Labor Market: Early Signs of Labor Market Mismatch ...........................................21Scenario Analysis: Quantification of the Potential Future Mismatch .....................................................22 V.Considerations for Future Reform Priorities ....................................................................................27 Annex I. Vision 2030 and National Investment Strategy ...............................................................................30 A. Vision 2030 ..............................................................................................................................................30B. National Investment Strategy...................................................................................................................31 Annex II. Selected Structural Reforms and Initiatives in Saudi Arabia Since 2016 ....................................32 A. Governance .............................................................................................................................................32B. Business Regulation ................................................................................................................................33C. External Sector ........................................................................................................................................36D. Capital Markets........................................................................................................................................39 References .........................................................................................................................................................44 FIGURES 1. Saudi Arabia’s Economic Performance.............................................................................................................62. FDI in Saudi Arabia ...........................................................................................................................................63. Selected Transmission Channels of Macrostructural Reforms .........................................................................74. Indicators on Structural Reforms.......................................................................................................................95. Evolution of Structural Gaps Compared to Emerging Markets Frontier ..........................................................106. Evolution of Structural Gaps Compared to Global Frontier.............................................................................107. EIU Business Environment Indicators, 2015-2024.............................................