地标性BD交易将推动长期增长

long-term growth Landmark BD deal to drive long-term growth BUY(Maintain) Landmark US$18.5bn+ out-licensing deal with AstraZeneca. CSPC hasentered into a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZ) to advanceeight weight management and type 2 diabetes programs. This partnershipcomplements AZ’s existing pipeline which includes oral GLP1RA, injectableamylin RA and GLP-1/GCGR assets, while significantly validating CSPC’sproprietaryAI-driven discovery and sustained-release monthly dosingpeptide platforms. The agreement grants AstraZeneca exclusive globalrights (excluding Greater China) to a portfolio of innovative long-acting Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Andy WANG(852) 3657 6288andywang@cmbi.com.hk Sustainable out-licensing income stream. Beyond the recent landmarkpartnershipwith AZ,CSPC has established a strong track record ofbusiness development (BD). Since late 2024, the Company has signed sixout-licensing agreements covering a diverse array of assets—including anLp(a)inhibitor,MAT2A inhibitor,ROR1 ADC,oral GLP-1,irinotecanliposome, and an AI-driven small molecule discovery platform. Thesetransactionscontinuously validate CSPC’s drug discovery capabilities.Furthermore, CSPC has cultivated a deep pipeline containing several late- Sales mildly recovered in 3Q25.CSPC reported total revenue ofRMB19.9bn for 9M25, including RMB1.54bn in out-licensing (BD) income.Excluding BD contributions, core revenue reached RMB18.4bn, down 19%YoY. However, signs of recovery emerged in 3Q25, with core revenue (ex-BD)returning to growth,increasing 4.2%QoQ.Modest sequentialimprovementwas observed across key therapeutic areas,includingneurology, oncology, anti-infectives, and cardiovascular products. Lookingahead, we expect drug sales to stabilize in 2026E. On the cost side, theselling expense ratio shrank significantly from 29.2% in 9M24 to 24.1% in Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.CSPC’s BD deals will be a key sustainable driver of earningsgrowth. Considering the landmark deal with AZ, we revise up our earningsforecastsin model and adjust our DCF-based TP from HK$11.05 to Risks:Pipeline advancement delays;negative impact from VBP oncommercial products. Disclosures & Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB International Global Markets Limited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors. CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors. CMBIG