BD持续推动长期增长

BD continues to drive long-term growth Sales mildly recovered in 3Q25.CSPC reported total revenue ofRMB19.9bn for 9M25, including RMB1.54bn in business development(BD)income. Excluding BD contributions, core revenue reached RMB18.4bn,down 19% YoY, representing 73.4% of our prior FY25 forecast and broadlyin line with expectations. Notably, core revenue(excl. BD income)returnedto sequential growth in 3Q25, increasing4.2% QoQ.Modestsequentialgrowth was observed across key therapeutic areas, including neurology,oncology, anti-infectives, and cardiovascular products. We expect CSPC’sdrug sales to remain stablein4Q25E.On the cost side, the selling expenseratioshranksignificantlyfrom 29.2%in9M24to 24.1% in 9M25. R&D Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Andy WANG(852) 3657 6288andywang@cmbi.com.hk Sustainable out-licensing income stream.Since late 2024, CSPC hassigned six out-licensing agreements across a diverse portfolio of assets,including lipoprotein(a) inhibitor, MAT2A inhibitor, ROR1 ADC, oralGLP-1,irinotecan liposome, and an AI-driven small molecule discovery platform.Management also anticipates out-licensing its EGFR ADC and a technologyplatform,althoughthepaceof these potential deals remains uncertain.CSPChas built avarietyofpipelines. We see high out-licensingpotentialin EGFR ADC (SYS6010): data readouts expected in 1H26.CSPC isexpected to present data for SYS6010 across multiple tumor types atAACR/ASCO in 1H26, with NSCLC data to followafterjournal publication.The asset has already entered global Ph3 development.In China, twopivotal trials are underway: a Ph3 monotherapy study in second-line EGFRTKI–resistant NSCLC,and a Ph1b/3 study evaluating SYS6010 incombination with osimertinib infirst-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC, with the Ph3portion set to commence shortly. CSPC is also in discussions with the CDEto initiatetrialsin2L+EGFR wild-type NSCLC, with additional Ph3 trialsplanned.In the US,CSPCis preparing to launch two global Ph3trialstargeting3L+EGFR-m NSCLC, and2L+EGFR wild-type NSCLC. Early Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.CSPC’sBDdealswillbe a keysustainabledriver ofearningsgrowth.Considering the uncertain drug sales in2026, wereviseour TPfromHK$12.11to HK$11.05(WACC9.34%, terminal growth3.0%). Risks:Pipeline advancement delays;BD timeline setbacks;negativeimpact from VBP on commercial products. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMBInternational Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a re