中国医药及生物科技：投资者营销会议上的主要问题解答

China Pharma & Biotech: Top investor questions from marketingmeetings answered At the marketing meetings we had with investors in HK last week, we noticed a trend ofdiscussions coming back to company fundamentals from last year’s focus on sector beta,in line with our expectations. BeOne, Kelun-Biotech, and Innovent got the most attentionin our coverage. After recent corrections, we think prices are right, and now is a goodopportunity for all three stocks. Rebecca Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2656rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com BeOne:With our recent BeOne upgrade, most questions are on potential upsides from the$41 Bn market cap today. Investors are generally more bullish on Brukinsa and many findour $5Bn peak sales conservative.1) Brukinsa IRA price cut exemption and upside.Drug list for 2028 IRA price cuts was just announced yesterday, and Brukinsa was absent.A 10%-20% upside could be expected if Brukinsa could dodge future bulletscorresponding to $6Bn by 2033E.2) Sonro: concerns are around the lack of detaileddata disclosure (e.g. fit/unfit patients, bone marrow uMRD) and whether venetoclax is areasonable sales benchmark. We believe the data disclosures are minor issues (see detailsin the note), and sonro’s trial progress closely mirrors venetoclax, with better efficacyin CLL/SLL and similar ORR in AML in cross-trial comparisons. To note, CLL/SLL andAML sales split in the US is roughly 60:40.Therefore venetoclax ($2.6Bn in 2024) is areasonable benchmark for sonro. Ellie Li+852 2123 2621ellie.li@bernsteinsg.com Kelun Biotech:there is a wide range of expectations on sac-TMT, ranging from $4-5Bnto over $10Bn (BernE $8 Bn). Most agree that the first reveal of global Ph3 data in lateline GC/GEJ and EGFRm NSCLC in 2026 would be a major catalyst, and if they align withChina data the stock would see a boost.1) Comparison with Dato-DXd’s positioningin 1L NSCLC.We think sac-TMT’s focus on squamous and PD-L1 high patients in the nearterm conveniently avoids head-on competition with Dato, which seems to focus on 1L nonsquamous.2) Whether 2L+ EGFRm would be a much smaller market than 1L TKIs,given the lower PFS.Our calculations show when patient volume, DoT, and pricing are alltaken into account, it’s reasonable to expectCNY4Bn sales from the 2L+ indication. 3)Concerns on the Merck deal royalty rate lower than typical license deals (tiered royaltiesfrom mid single digit to low teens). We applied 8%, 10%, 13% and found the market cap torange from HK$112, 117, and 124 Bn - i.e. 10% upside even in the bear case. Innovent:Investors still focus on mazdutide sales and IBI363 readouts, but many askwhat’s beyond these two.1) Impact on mazdutide after GLP-1 price reset in China.As mazdutide is c.30% pricier than TZP and SEMA, we see pressure in 2026 before itsNRDL negotiations and lower sales estimates from CNY3 Bn to 2Bn. However, our 2027and long-term estimates remain: 5.4Bn and 10Bn at peak. (See our GLP-1 update) 2)OnIBI363, we expect plenty catalysts- data from1L PoC trialsin NSCLC and CRC andOS updates in I/O-resistant NSCLC(both China Ph1s) and thepotential start of 3more global Ph3sby partner Takeda.3) What’s new?Innovent started6 non-ChinaPh1sin 2025 (US/AU) and 4 of these should complete this year. We expect readouts in thenew oral GLP-1, CLDN18.2 ADC,and two new bi/trispecific antibodies. One of these isIBI3003, a trispecific T-cell engager that reported favorable early data in R/R MM at ASH inDec 2025 (see our note), and received Fast Track designation from the FDA two days ago. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DETAILS BEONE MEDICINES: BRUKINSA UPSIDE; SONRO EFFICACY AND COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL Q. Is it fair to assume IRA price-cuts for Brukinsa similar to Imbruvica and Calquence? Or is there an upside casefor Brukinsa? CMS just announced 15 drugs selected for IRA price cuts in 2028, and BeOne’s Zanubrutinib was not included. Previously, wehad assumed a -25% price cut for Zanubrutinib in 2028E because of IRA, but given this announcement, we have projectedan upside case where the reduction becomes -10%.This adjustment lifts Zanubrutinib’s 2033E peak sales from US$5.2 Bn to 6.2 Bn.That said, we believe the IRA pricing still remains an overhang for Zanubrutinib. According to CMS data,Zanubrutinib’s total medicare part D spending was $801 Mn in 2023, which is also in the spending range of other drugsincluded in IRA. Q. Should we take sonro’s lack of disclosure of bone marrow uMRD as a negative? And how about the inclusion offit / unfit patients? A: We have now incorporated fitness data and explicitly separated uMRD4 rates in bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood(PB) across the TN CLL trials.When viewed holistically, BeOne continues to look competitive, particularly given itsadvantages in ORR and uMRD4 in peripheral blood.Increasingly, uMRD4 in peripheral blood is viewed as a reasonableproxy forbone‑marrowclearance, which supports the strength of the BeOne dataset desp