黄金需求趋势：第四季度和2025年全年

Groundbreaking year for gold Highlights Demand volumes and the gold price both smash records The LBMA (PM) gold price set 53new all-time highs during 2025.The average Q4 price was a recordUS$4,135/oz (+55% y/y), resultingin the highest annual average ofUS$3,431/oz (+44% y/y). Total gold demand in 2025, including OTC, exceeded 5,000t for the first time.Combined with the record-breaking run in the gold price – setting 53 new all-time highs during the year – this yielded an unprecedented value of US$555bn(+45% y/y). Heightened investment activity drove overall demand growth: global gold ETFholdings grew 801t – the second strongest year on record – while bar and coinbuying accelerated to reach a 12-year high. Total annual gold supply grewby 1%.Initial estimates suggestmine production inched up to anew record of 3,672t. Recyclingactivity gained 3% to 1,404t – arelatively muted response to a 67%increase in the US dollar goldprice. Safe-haven and diversification motives were consistent themes drivinginvestment interest throughout the year, along with price-driven motivations. Central bank purchases of 863t reached the upper end of our expected 2025range; they remain historically elevated and geographically widespread but haveslowed from their recent pace. A decline in jewellery demand volumes was entirely expected in the environmentof successive record gold price highs. Sentiment towards gold jewellery,however, remained very positive, as evidenced by the value of global demand,which climbed 18% to a record US$172bn. Demand also set a Q4record.Total quarterly demand of 1,303twas the highest ever for a fourthquarter, lifted by hefty ETF inflows(175t) and a 12-year high in barand coin buying (420t). Technology demand was stable despite disruption in the consumer electronicsspace, supported by continued growth in AI-related applications. Annual gold demand in tonnes and US$bn* Outlook Looking to the year ahead, withcontinued geopolitical tensions weexpect another year of strong goldETF inflows and robust bar andcoin demand, underpinned byelevated central bank buying.Jewellery to remain weak in apersistent high price environment. For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org Gold supply and demand Investment Outlook Geopolitics will be key to investment in 2026, raising riskpremia across the board (Chart3). In an increasinglypolarised world, there is little reason to expect this tocompress.1Alongside a broad set of drivers as per our 2026outlook, gold’s appeal as an all-weather hedge relative tofixed income should continue to attract material investordemand into 2026, and possibly beyond. Tense geopolitics look set to be a majorcontributor to gold’s fortunes again in 2026,supporting a continuation of elevated centralbank demand, strong gold ETF inflows, androbust bar and coin demand. Jewelleryweakness is likely to persist and a strongrecycling response seems unlikely. North American gold ETF demand had an exceptionallystrong 2025, but the cumulative flows remain modestcompared to past surges, and holdings remain low relativeto other assets. In addition, Asian demand is only beginningto scale and European holdings are well below previouspeaks, providing plenty of capacity to add. The short-to-medium-term backdrop is broadly supportive of continuedsolid demand: •Bond market uncertainty, expected policy rate cuts andpressure on the US dollar are likely key factors supportingcontinued strength across gold investment sectors •Jewellery spend should remain healthy, absent economicshocks, but tonnage demand will likely experience similarweakness to 2025•Central bank demand is expected to be solid at levelsclose to those in 2025•Mine supply and recycled gold are likely to reach similarlevels to last year, with miners incentivised by highmargins and recycling firm but constrained. •Real rates are falling (US 2-year TIP yield is already downalmost 20bps in 2026)•Credit spreads remain near historic lows while bondvolatility is threatening to rise•Equities are priced for perfection•The US dollar remains expensive on a Real EffectiveExchange Rate (REER) basis•Geopolitical risk remains elevated•Central banks provide an anchor for sustained buying. European investment appetite – previously a laggard – isimproving (Chart4). Bar and coin demand surpassed the USin 2025, yet ETF flows remain muted compared with USbuying. Expected change in annual gold demand* Chart3: The corrosive impact of elevated geopolitical riskis visible across bond markets Our model suggests that renewed credit concerns, lowerinterest rates, or meaningful inflation surprises couldaccelerate demand further. Nonetheless, it is worth flagging that with price momentumas strong as it is, the risk of a pullback in investment onprofit-taking remains a distinct possibility. Indian bar and coin demand and local ETFs should remainstrong in 2026. Equities may stay subdued and less attractiveamid high valuations, tariffs, and foreign outfl