分析师注：制造武器库

EMERGING TECH RESEARCHManufacturing the Arsenal Institutional Research Group Ali JavaheriSenior Research Analyst,Emerging Spacesali.javaheri@pitchbook.com Tracking venture deals in scaling up productive capacity pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Published on January 16, 2026 Key takeaways •Manufacturing capacity has become the binding constraint in defense innovation,eclipsing capital and technology.The primary failure mode for venture-backeddefense startups has shifted from early-stage funding gaps to the “Vall ey ofProduction,” where throughput, labor, compliance, and supply chain resiliencedetermine whether systems can be fielded at scale on compressed timelines. •Venture capital has decisively moved upstream into financing physical productioncapacity.Manufacturing-focused defense investment rose from roughly $0.5 billionannually in 2022-2023 to $2.6 billion in 2024 and $4.7 billion across 39 deals in2025, signaling a structural repricing of execution risk rather than a cyclical surge. •Capital is concentrating in hardware-intensive segments where industrialbottlenecks are most acute.Drones, space systems, defense electronics,propulsion, advanced manufacturing, and maritime autonomy captured themajority of manufacturing scale-up capital, reflecting investor recognition thatthese domains are constrained by facilities, test infrastructure, and compliantsupply chains rather than software iteration speed. •Manufacturing readiness is now a first-order input to valuation andfollow-onfinancing.Median time between funding rounds compressed from around21 months to about 13 months as companies pull capital forward to stand upproduction lines, expand facilities, and address labor and tooling constraintsearlier in their life cycle. •Production architecture has emerged as a strategic differentiator, not anoperational detail.Choices between vertical integration, hybrid models, andoutsourcing map directly to execution risk, capital intensity, and contractsurvivability, with asset ownership and supplier control increasingly treated ascompetitive moats in constrained segments. •Vertical integration is being underwritten as a contracting strategy inbottlenecked domains.In propulsion, energetics, space manufacturing, andmaritime systems, owning or controlling production assets improves deliverycredibility under compressed timelines, even at the cost of higher upfront capitaland balance-sheet risk. •Hybrid and distributed models remain viable where software defines value, butonly with strong integration discipline.Asset-light strategies can scale fasterinitially, but exposure to component shortages, compliance shocks, and supplierprioritization increasingly limits tolerance from both investors and customers. •Manufacturing readiness has become a prerequisite for contract progression.Across 2023-2025, contract outcomes increasingly hinged on demonstratedthroughput rather than prototype performance, tightening the grad uation path frompilot programs to high-ceiling production vehicles. •The Department of Defense’s shift toward “attritable” mass has resetprocurement filters around delivery credibility.Systems are now evaluated ontheir ability to be produced repeatedly, at rate, and with compliant inputs, makingmanufacturing readiness levels a more decisive signal than technology readinesslevels in many categories. •Structural bottlenecks will persist into 2026, but their strategic importance willincrease.Propulsion, energetics, and large-scale maritime production remaininelastic due to permitting, testing, and supplier concentration, setting a hardceiling on near-term output despite rising capital deployment. •Venture capital’s role in defense manufacturing is transitioning from accelerationto institutionalization.In 2026, underwriting production capacity is becoming abaseline expectation rather than a differentiated thesis, with capital increasinglyselective and concentrated behind companies that convert facilities intorepeatable output. •Capital structures are evolving to support asset-heavy scale-up.Equity isincreasingly paired with nondilutive funding, strategic participation, and privatecredit tied to equipment and facilities, reflecting a shift toward infrastructure-likefinancing models. •Execution, not technical novelty, will determine returns in 2026.As tolerancefor missed production targets narrows, companies that deliver at scale gaindisproportionate access to capital and contracts, while those that fail toindustrialize face rapid repricing. •Manufacturing-led venture investment has become a durable pillar of the defenseindustrial base.Facilities are being built ahead of contracts, capital is deployedahead of certainty, and industrial capacity itself is emerging as a long-term sourceof competitive advantage rather than a downstream c